Climate double whammy: assessing the physical and transition climate risks of overseas power projects
気候の二重苦：海外電力プロジェクトの物理的リスクと移行リスクの評価 (AI 翻訳)
Xia Li, Kevin P Gallagher, Xu Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
米国、中国、日本の3カ国が融資した105カ国578件の海外電力プロジェクトを対象に、物理的気候リスクと移行リスクを同時に評価。石炭火力が両リスク最高値、水力は洪水リスクが高い。リスクの正の相関は融資国・融資タイプに依存せず、複合リスク評価の必要性を示す。
English
This study assesses both physical and transition climate risks for 578 overseas power projects across 105 countries financed by the US, China, and Japan. Using Moody's ESG Solutions data and project-level CO2 emissions, it finds a positive correlation between the two risks, driven by fossil fuels. Coal plants have the highest risks; hydropower faces high flood risk. No evidence that the relationship varies by financier or financing type, highlighting the need for integrated risk assessments.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の海外投融資（JICA、JBIC等）を通じた電力プロジェクトの気候リスク評価に示唆を与える。SSBJ開示やTCFD対応において、物理リスクと移行リスクの複合評価が求められる背景を実証データで裏付ける。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence for the correlation between physical and transition risks in international energy finance, directly relevant to TCFD/ISSB disclosure frameworks. It underscores the need for multilateral development banks and export credit agencies to adopt integrated climate risk assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodology for combining geolocated physical risk data with project-level emission data offers a replicable framework for empirical climate risk research.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams should note the compounded climate liabilities in overseas power investments, especially for coal and hydropower projects.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators and development finance institutions should consider both physical and transition risks in cross-border energy lending guidelines.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines both the physical and transition climate risks of 578 bilaterally-financed overseas power projects across 105 countries, funded by the world’s three largest economies–the United States, China, and Japan. We geolocate each power project and obtain forecasted physical climate risk exposures at these locations using data from Moody’s ESG Solutions. We measure transition climate risks using the project specific committed CO₂ emissions and find a positive correlation between physical and transition climate risks across these projects—which are driven primarily by fossil fuel investments. Coal power plants exhibit the highest level of both physical and transition climate risks. Although hydropower projects tend to have lower carbon emissions, they face the highest flood risk among all fuel types. We find no evidence that the positive relationship between physical and transition climate risks varies by financier country or financing type. These results highlight the need for integrated climate risk assessments in international energy finance and underscore the potential for climate-related liabilities to compound across multiple risk channels.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3848first seen 2026-06-29 08:23:22
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