Mapping Policy Pathways for <scp>FDI</scp> Resilience Under Climate Risk: An Econometric and Machine Learning Approach
気候リスク下でのFDIレジリエンスのための政策経路のマッピング：計量経済学と機械学習によるアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Francis Atta Sarpong, Lulu Gu, Rebecca Otiwaa, Emmanuel Adade Arthur, Gifty BOAKYE-BOATENG
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、176カ国（1995-2023年）のデータを用いて、物理的気候リスクが外国直接投資（FDI）に与える影響を計量経済学と機械学習で分析。気候リスクはFDIを有意に減少させ、特に適応能力の低い国で顕著。非線形関係が確認され、閾値を超えると急減する。技術革新がFDIレジリエンスの最も強力な推進要因である。
English
This study investigates how physical climate risk affects foreign direct investment (FDI) using econometric and machine learning methods across 176 countries (1995-2023). It finds that higher climate risk significantly deters FDI, especially in countries with weak adaptive capacity. The relationship is nonlinear, with FDI declining sharply beyond a critical threshold. Technological innovation is identified as the most potent driver of FDI resilience.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は気候リスクへの適応策と投資環境整備が課題。本論文は、技術革新と制度整備の順序が重要であることを示唆し、日本のGX投資戦略にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global discussion on climate risk and investment flows, highlighting the role of technological innovation and coordinated reforms in building FDI resilience. It provides empirical evidence for policymakers designing climate adaptation strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides robust empirical evidence on climate risk-FDI dynamics and policy pathways.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of technological innovation and sequencing of reforms to attract FDI under climate risk.
📄 Abstract（原文）
ABSTRACT This study investigates how physical climate risk reshapes foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and identifies policy pathways to enhance investment resilience. Integrating econometric and machine learning frameworks across 176 countries (1995–2023), we employ panel fixed effects, instrumental variables, and explainable machine learning to capture both causal relationships and nonlinear dynamics, with physical climate risk measured using the Global Climate Physical Risk Index (GCPRI). Three core findings emerge. First, higher climate risk significantly deters FDI, particularly in countries with weak adaptive capacity and low technological readiness. Second, the climate–FDI relationship is nonlinear: FDI remains resilient under moderate exposure but declines sharply beyond a critical threshold (GCPRI≈0.6). Third, counterfactual simulations reveal that technological innovation is the most potent driver of FDI resilience, outpacing governance and financial development, while coordinated reforms generate super‐additive gains. These findings demonstrate that climate resilience is a constructed capability. Strategic sequencing: beginning with technological upgrading, consolidating institutions, then integrating climate policy can transform climate exposure from an unmanageable threat into a governable risk.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.71389first seen 2026-07-01 05:17:08 · last seen 2026-07-01 05:17:23
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