Asymmetric Energy-Price Shock Transmission and Electricity-Sector Carbon Transition in ASEAN: Panel NARDL and MIDAS Evidence
La-ongsri W, Sukchitt N, Marupanthorn P
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、国際エネルギー価格ショックがASEANの電力セクターの炭素移行に非対称に影響するかを分析。2000-2025年のパネルデータを用い、低炭素電源比率を移行指標とし、NARDLとMIDAS手法を適用。短期的には燃料費上昇が移行を促進するが、長期的には対称的。国ごとの異質性が大きく、単一モデルでは地域全体を説明できない。
English
This paper examines asymmetric transmission of energy-price shocks to electricity-sector carbon transition in ASEAN using panel NARDL and MIDAS. Results show positive short-run effects of fuel-cost increases but symmetric long-run responses. Country heterogeneity is significant; no single model dominates. Supports cautious monitoring interpretation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ASEAN特有の分析だが、日本企業のASEAN展開やエネルギー調達戦略に示唆。炭素移行の価格メカニズム理解に貢献。
In the global GX context
Provides empirical evidence on energy price shocks and decarbonization in ASEAN, relevant for global transition finance and carbon pricing discussions. Highlights heterogeneity across developing economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for understanding asymmetric price effects on energy transition in developing regions; methodological reference for NARDL/MIDAS in energy economics.
🏢実務担当者:Insights for energy procurement and investment decisions in ASEAN electricity markets under fuel price volatility.
🏛政策担当者:Informs design of carbon pricing or subsidy policies in ASEAN; cautions against assuming symmetric price-driven decarbonization.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This paper examines whether international energy-price shocks transmit asymmetrically to electricity-sector carbon-transition performance in ASEAN. Using an unbalanced country-year panel for ten ASEAN economies over 2000--2025, the analysis measures transition performance by the low-carbon share of electricity generation and constructs real local-currency fuel-cost pressure as the main shock variable. The empirical design combines positive and negative shock decomposition, fixed-effect panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation, volatility-threshold conditioning, and country-specific rolling forecast comparisons, including mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) specifications. The results indicate statistically significant error correction and positive short-run transmission from fuel-cost increases. In the long run, however, the estimated response to fuel-cost increases and the absolute response to fuel-cost decreases are nearly identical, and the Wald test does not reject symmetry at the regional average. Threshold estimates suggest that high-volatility years may alter the negative-shock channel, although the interaction effects are imprecisely estimated. Forecast comparisons reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries: asymmetric or mixed-frequency terms improve monitoring accuracy in several economies, but no single specification dominates the region. The findings support a cautious monitoring interpretation. Directional fuel-cost pressure, volatility states, and country-specific electricity-system structure are informative for ASEAN transition assessment, but the annual panel does not justify a causal claim that higher fossil-fuel prices directly accelerate decarbonization.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10090959/v1first seen 2026-06-26 04:35:54 · last seen 2026-07-05 04:33:47
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