gxceed
← 論文一覧に戻る

A Study on Emission Reduction Strategies for Freight Trucks in the Context of China’s Carbon Neutrality Objectives

中国のカーボンニュートラル目標における貨物トラックの排出削減戦略に関する研究 (AI 翻訳)

Peihong Chen, Qi Chen, Ruitian Yao, Zhaoxia Kang

Energies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-21#エネルギー転換Origin: CN
DOI: 10.3390/en19102472
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102472

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、中国の貨物トラックの排出削減戦略を分析。TCOとLCAを用いてディーゼル、電気、水素燃料電池トラックを比較し、LSTMモデルで2020～2050年の排出ポテンシャルを予測。電気トラックが経済的に優位であり、水素トラックは太陽光電解で最低炭素強度を達成。2050年までに最大82.9%の削減が可能と結論。

English

This study analyzes emission reduction strategies for freight trucks in China, using TCO and LCA to compare diesel, electric, and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. An LSTM model predicts fleet emissions from 2020 to 2050. Results show electric trucks achieve TCO parity before 2050; hydrogen trucks have lowest carbon intensity with solar electrolysis. Up to 82.9% emission reduction is possible by 2050.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の大型貨物トラック脱炭素化は日本にとっても参考になる。特にTCO評価やグリッド脱炭素化の効果、政策ミックス（差別課税、排出基準強化）は日本のトラック運送業界のGX戦略に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper offers a comprehensive, quantified comparison of electric and hydrogen trucks in China, highlighting the importance of grid decarbonization and policy support for fleet transition. Its findings on cost parity timelines and emission reduction potentials are valuable for global freight decarbonization efforts.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a robust methodology combining TCO, LCA, and neural network forecasting for truck decarbonization scenarios.

🏢実務担当者:Offers clear timelines for TCO parity and emission reduction targets that can guide fleet investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Recommends specific policies such as differential taxation and emission standards to accelerate new energy truck adoption.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Road freight contributes over half of China’s transport carbon emissions, making its decarbonization critical for carbon neutrality. This study combines total cost of ownership (TCO) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze the economic efficiency and carbon emission effects of diesel, electric, and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. Combined with the LSTM neural network and vehicle ownership model, this study predicts the fleet emission reduction potential from 2020 to 2050. The results show that all new energy trucks can achieve TCO parity with diesel trucks before 2050, and electrification shows better economic competitiveness than hydrogen fuel cell technology across all vehicle types in the Chinese context. Fuel cell trucks powered via solar-powered water electrolysis exhibit the lowest carbon intensity, and grid decarbonization can significantly improve the emission reduction effects of electric and fuel cell trucks. Freight fleet carbon emissions are expected to peak around 2030. In an ideal scenario, emission reductions of 19.5%, 41.9%, and 82.9% can be achieved by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Heavy-duty trucks are the main emission contributors (47–58%) and the main target of emission reduction strategies. Short-term reduction depends on fuel economy, while long-term reduction prioritizes new energy substitution. Policy recommendations include promoting alternative fuel trucks, upgrading emission standards, and adopting differential taxation.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。