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Whose energy transition? Global renewable-capacity resilience masks country-level divergence after shocks

どの国のエネルギー転換か？グローバルな再生可能エネルギー容量の回復力が国レベルの乖離を隠す (AI 翻訳)

Saxena S, Dally B

Research Squareプレプリント2026-07-01#エネルギー転換Origin: Global
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10181530/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10181530/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

2000～2024年の222か国の太陽光・風力容量データを用い、4つのショック後のトレンド乖離を分析。全体の回復力は見られるが、国別中央値では2014年の原油価格暴落のみ有意な減少を示す。大規模経済国が全体を形作ることが判明。

English

Using a 222-country panel of solar+wind capacity from 2000-2024, this paper finds that aggregate renewable-capacity resilience after major shocks masks significant country-level divergence. Only the 2014 oil-price crash shows a median contraction, and large economies disproportionately shape the aggregate trend.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文は、世界的な再生可能エネルギー容量の回復力が国ごとに不均等であることを示す。日本は東日本大震災後の再エネ導入拡大やエネルギー価格ショックの影響を受けやすく、政策立案において国際的なショックへの耐性を国別に評価する重要性を示唆する。

In the global GX context

This paper reveals that global renewable-energy resilience masks significant country-level divergence. For global GX context, it challenges the narrative of uniform transition resilience and highlights the need for disaggregated policy approaches. The finding that large economies shape the aggregate is particularly relevant for the G20 and international climate policy coordination.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Shows the importance of using country-level medians and placebo tests to avoid misleading aggregate resilience conclusions.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the risk of relying on global renewable-capacity trends for corporate strategy; country-specific shock vulnerability matters.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests that national energy policies must account for divergent capacities to withstand global economic and geopolitical shocks.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Global renewable-energy capacity has continued to grow through major economic and geopolitical shocks, but the world total need not describe the typical country. Using a 222-country panel of installed solar plus wind capacity from 2000 to 2024, we estimate country-level deviations from pre-shock trends for four major shocks and compare the aggregate gap, the equal-country mean and the country median with empirical placebo bands. Among established adopters, only the 2014 oil-price crash produces a country-median deviation outside the placebo bands in the contraction direction across post-shock horizons. This result disappears when an inverse-hyperbolic-sine specification admits small adopters. Leave-out tests show that large economies materially shape the aggregate in 2008 and 2022. Aggregate renewable-capacity resilience is therefore real but unevenly distributed across countries.</p>

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