Integrated Decarbonization Pathways for Regional Power Systems: A LEAP–NEMO Analysis in Guangxi, China
広西地域電力システムの統合的脱炭素経路：LEAP–NEMO分析 (AI 翻訳)
Yongliang Luo, Xuwen Zheng, Biao Yang, Worawat Sa-Ngiamvibool, Supannika Wattana, Buncha Wattana
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はLEAP-NEMOモデルを用いて、中国広西省の電力システムにおける長期脱炭素経路を評価した。統合最適化シナリオの下で、2060年までに再生可能エネルギー比率が88%に達し、石炭消費が60%以上削減され、総システムコストが950億米ドル節約されることを示した。これらの結果は、地域電力システムの深い脱炭素化には発電と貯蔵資源の統合的最適化が不可欠であることを実証している。
English
This study uses an integrated LEAP-NEMO modeling framework to evaluate long-term decarbonization pathways for Guangxi Province, China. Under the Integrated Optimization Scenario, renewable electricity reaches 88% by 2060, coal consumption declines by over 60%, and total system costs save USD 95 billion compared to baseline. The results demonstrate that integrated optimization of generation and storage is essential for deep decarbonization while maintaining system feasibility.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の省レベルの電力システム分析は、日本の電力システム脱炭素化計画（特に再エネ大量導入時の系統安定性）に示唆を与える。広西省のケースは、日本の地域電力会社にも応用可能な統合モデリング手法を提供している。
In the global GX context
This provincial-level power system analysis in China offers insights for global power system decarbonization, especially regarding grid stability with high renewable penetration. The integrated modeling approach is applicable to other regions facing similar challenges.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a validated LEAP-NEMO modeling framework for regional power system decarbonization, with detailed scenarios and sensitivity analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Demonstrates the economic viability of integrated optimization of generation and storage, with quantitative cost savings and renewable curtailment reductions.
🏛政策担当者:Shows that coordinated policy and technology pathways can achieve deep decarbonization while maintaining system reliability, with peak emissions in 2027.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Achieving deep decarbonization while maintaining power system operational feasibility represents a critical challenge in regions with a high penetration of renewable energy. In this study, we developed an integrated LEAP–NEMO modeling framework to evaluate long-term decarbonization pathways and power system flexibility in Guangxi Province, China, from 2022 to 2060. Four scenarios were designed, the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAS), the Policy Strengthening Scenario (PSS), the Technology-Centered Scenario (TCS), and the Integrated Optimization Scenario (IOS), to assess the impacts of policy, technology, and system-level coordination. Our results show that under the IOS, renewable electricity reaches approximately 78% by 2050 and further increases to 88% by 2060, while coal consumption declines by over 60% compared with the baseline. Energy storage deployment under the IOS reaches 25 GW by 2060 (rising to approximately 28 GW under a higher-resolution 48-representative-day validation), approximately five times the level in the BAS (5 GW), significantly enhancing system flexibility and reducing renewable curtailment from 10.2% to 1.8%. Carbon emissions peak in 2027 at 228 Mt CO2, approximately 20% lower than the baseline, and decline to 52 Mt CO2 by 2060, achieving a cumulative reduction of 3.85 Gt CO2. Economically, the IOS pathway reduces total system costs to USD 815 billion, saving approximately USD 95 billion compared with the BAS, with the levelized cost of electricity declining to USD 63/MWh by 2060. These results demonstrate that integrated optimization of generation and storage resources is essential in achieving deep decarbonization while maintaining system deterministic capacity adequacy and economic efficiency.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/en19133047first seen 2026-06-30 05:50:17
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