Dynamic Decarbonization Pathways of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Hot-Summer Warm-Winter Region: Coupling Building Performance and Grid Decarbonization
中国の高温多湿地域における都市住宅の動的脱炭素化経路：建物性能と電力系統の脱炭素化の連携 (AI 翻訳)
Guojian Li, Xueyu Tan, Yongbo He, Ziang Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国南部の高温多湿地域における都市住宅の長期的脱炭素化を分析。2010年から2060年を対象に、建物ストック、省エネ性能、電力系統の炭素強度の動的変化をモデル化。Nearly zero-energy性能によりEUIを19-27%削減、電力系統の脱炭素化加速で炭素ピークを8-15年前倒し可能。省エネ政策と電力部門の連携の重要性を示した。
English
This study develops a dynamic stock-energy-carbon framework for urban residential buildings in southern China's hot-summer warm-winter region (Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hainan) from 2010 to 2060. Using EnergyPlus simulations, it shows that nearly zero-energy building performance reduces energy use intensity by 19-27%, while accelerated grid decarbonization advances the operational carbon peak by 8-15 years and reduces 2060 residual emissions by ~71%. The results highlight the need for coordinated demand-side efficiency policies and power-sector decarbonization.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
この研究は中国の高温多湿地域に焦点を当てているが、日本の住宅部門でもZEH基準や電力系統の脱炭素化が進んでおり、同様の動的モデルが有効。特にエネルギー需給の連携や省エネ政策と送電網のカーボンフリー化の整合性を考慮する上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a comprehensive modeling framework for urban residential building decarbonization that couples building performance with grid evolution. While focused on southern China, the methodology and insights on the interaction between demand-side efficiency and supply-side decarbonization are highly relevant for global building decarbonization strategies, especially in hot and humid climates. It offers empirical evidence for the timing and magnitude of interventions needed.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for researchers in building energy modeling and decarbonization pathways, providing a dynamic stock-energy-carbon framework.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams in construction and real estate can use the findings to inform building performance standards and retrofit strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note the need for aligning building codes with grid decarbonization targets to achieve earlier carbon peaks.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Long-term decarbonization of urban residential buildings in southern China depends on the joint evolution of building stock, end-use efficiency, and electricity carbon intensity. This study develops a dynamic stock-energy-carbon framework for urban residential buildings in China’s hot-summer warm-winter region from 2010 to 2060, using Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Hainan as case provinces. The model links demographic and housing-space change with stock survival, retrofit of the base-year stock, cohort-specific performance levels for post-2022 new construction, and time-varying provincial grid emission factors. EnergyPlus simulations of seven high-rise residential archetypes show that nearly zero-energy performance reduces province-level EUI by 19.2–26.5% relative to the baseline, with cooling-load reductions forming the dominant part of the improvement in the warmer provinces. Across coupled demand-side scenarios, stricter new-build performance standards reduce 2026–2060 cumulative operational energy by 5.3–10.1% relative to the conservative demand-side setting, while increasing retrofit intensity provides a smaller but consistent additional reduction. Carbon outcomes are more sensitive to electricity-sector assumptions: under the main demand-side setting, moving from the conservative to the accelerated grid pathway advances the operational-carbon peak by 8–15 years across the four provinces and lowers 2060 residual emissions by about 71%. A comparison with available observed provincial household-electricity statistics is added as a plausibility check; it confirms the relevant order of magnitude but also indicates that absolute demand estimates should be interpreted cautiously because of boundary and EUI-representation differences. These results suggest that demand-side efficiency policies must be coordinated with rapid provincial power-sector decarbonization if the residential sector in Hot-Summer Warm-Winter Region is to reach earlier carbon peaks and lower residual operational emissions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16112059first seen 2026-05-23 06:23:09 · last seen 2026-05-27 05:05:33
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