Voyage-Level Assessment of Slow Steaming and B30 Biofuel Strategies for Container Vessel Decarbonisation Under EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime
EU ETSとFuelEU Maritime下でのコンテナ船の減速運航とB30バイオ燃料戦略の航路レベル評価 (AI 翻訳)
Doru Coșofreț, Octavian-Narcis Volintiru, Daniel Mărășescu, Florențiu Deliu, Ciprian Popa
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、EU ETSとFuelEU Maritime規制下でのコンテナ船の運航脱炭素化オプションを評価した。9つのシナリオ（3速度×3燃料）を分析し、パレート最適分析により、最低コスト（HFO、19kn）、中間排出削減（MGO、19kn）、最低排出（B30、19kn）の3つの代表的な低速運航構成を特定。B30は最低の温室効果ガス強度を示すが、現在の炭素価格（50-80 EUR/tCO2）では競争力がなく、約754 EUR/tCO2の炭素価格で初めてHFOと同等になる。感度分析ではB30価格低減により閾値が約406 EUR/tCO2に低下することを示し、FuelEU Maritimeのライフサイクルインセンティブの重要性を指摘。
English
This study evaluates operational decarbonisation options for a 5000 TEU container vessel on the Rotterdam–Limassol route under EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime. Nine scenarios (three speeds × three fuels) are assessed, and Pareto analysis identifies three low-speed configurations: minimum cost (HFO, 19 kn), intermediate emissions reduction (MGO, 19 kn), and minimum emissions (B30, 19 kn). B30 achieves the lowest GHG intensity but becomes cost-competitive with HFO only at carbon prices of ~754 EUR/tCO2, far above current EU ETS levels. Sensitivity analysis shows that reducing B30 price from 900 to 720 USD/t lowers this threshold to ~406 EUR/tCO2, highlighting the need for complementary lifecycle incentives.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、EU ETSとFuelEU Maritimeの下でのバイオ燃料活用の経済性を定量的に示しており、EU航路を持つ日本船社にとって重要な知見を提供する。また、日本の海運脱炭素化政策やIMO規制への対応にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to maritime decarbonization literature with a voyage-level scenario analysis under EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime. It quantifies the economic gap for transitional biofuels and underscores the role of complementary policies. The break-even carbon price analysis is valuable for global shipping stakeholders and policymakers.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous case study methodology combining Pareto and Monte Carlo analysis for voyage-level assessment.
🏢実務担当者:Use cost-emission trade-off results to inform fuel and speed choices under EU ETS compliance.
🏛政策担当者:Break-even carbon price analysis highlights the need for higher carbon prices or additional incentives to make biofuels viable.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study evaluates operational decarbonisation options for container vessels operating under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime. This study analyses a 5000 TEU post-Panamax container vessel on the Rotterdam–Limassol route under nine operational scenarios combining three operating speeds (24, 21, and 19 kn) with three fuel configurations (HFO, MGO, and a B30 biofuel blend). The assessment included voyage-level fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI), Tank-to-Wake (TTW) greenhouse-gas intensity, fuel cost, EU ETS exposure, Pareto trade-off analysis, and Monte Carlo uncertainty evaluation. Pareto analysis reduced the nine evaluated scenarios to three representative low-speed operating configurations corresponding to minimum cost (HFO, 19 kn), intermediate emissions reduction (MGO, 19 kn), and minimum emissions (B30, 19 kn). Among these configurations, the B30 case produced the lowest TTW GHG-intensity and EEOI values, whereas the HFO case remained the least-cost option under current market conditions. The break-even assessment indicates that B30 becomes cost-competitive with HFO slow steaming only at carbon prices of approximately 754 EUR/tCO2 under reference market conditions—substantially above current EU ETS levels (50–80 EUR/tCO2). Sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the B30 price from 900 USD/t to 720 USD/t lowers this threshold to approximately 406 EUR/tCO2. The results quantify the current economic gap for transitional biofuels under the EU ETS alone and highlight the complementary role of FuelEU Maritime lifecycle incentives. Key limitations include TTW-based emissions accounting and steady-state operational assumptions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14141296first seen 2026-07-16 07:16:34
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