Global Implications of China’s EV Dominance: Assessing Benefits, Supply Chain Risks, and Market Concentration
中国のEV支配の世界的影響：便益、サプライチェーンリスク、市場集中の評価 (AI 翻訳)
Daniyal Irfan, Xuan Tang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国のEV支配が世界に与える影響を分析。2030年までに中国は世界のEVストックの57%、バッテリー需要の47%を占め、石油代替は日量275万バレルに達する。供給ショックに対する脆弱性は高く、モンテカルロシミュレーションでは92%の確率で深刻なバッテリー不足が発生すると予測。一方、中国は年間1170億ドルの経済便益を得る可能性がある。
English
This study assesses global implications of China's EV dominance. By 2030, China is projected to account for 57% of global EV stock, 47% of battery demand, and 2.75 million barrels/day of oil displacement. Supply concentration creates a 92% probability of severe battery shortage under moderate shock. China stands to gain $117 billion annually from avoided oil imports and carbon revenues.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は電池サプライチェーンの中国依存が課題であり、本論文はそのリスクを定量的に示す。日本企業の調達戦略や政策対応に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper highlights the paradox of China's EV dominance: climate benefits versus extreme supply chain vulnerabilities. It provides quantitative evidence for global diversification policies and is relevant for ISSB transition plan disclosures and corporate resilience strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The LMDI decomposition and Monte Carlo simulation frameworks offer methodological contributions for analyzing market concentration risks in clean energy transitions.
🏢実務担当者:Provides quantitative assessment of supply chain risks from Chinese EV/battery dominance, informing sourcing diversification and resilience planning.
🏛政策担当者:Quantifies the urgent need for policy interventions to reduce battery supply chain concentration and ensure global energy transition resilience.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the global implications arising from China’s dominant position in the electric vehicle (EV) transition. By 2030, under current policy trends, China is projected to account for approximately 57% of the global EV stock (238 million vehicles) and 53% of the worldwide EV-driven oil displacement (2.75 million barrels per day). Its demand for automotive batteries will reach 1516 GWh, representing 47% of the global total. Employing LMDI-I decomposition, we find that China’s outsized impact is driven not merely by the scale but by the higher vehicle utilization intensity (contributing 61% of its advantage) and policy support for efficient vehicle types like plug-in hybrids and two/three-wheelers (contributing 31%). The extreme geographic concentration creates a significant systemic risk; our Monte Carlo simulation indicates a 92% probability that a moderate supply shock in China would trigger a severe global battery shortage. Conversely, China stands to gain substantial economic benefits, estimated at USD 117 billion annually by 2030 (90% CI: 78–173 billion) from the avoided oil imports and potential carbon revenues. These findings highlight a central paradox of the energy transition: while China delivers immense climate and energy security benefits, its dominance introduces unprecedented supply chain vulnerabilities and a highly asymmetric distribution of economic gains, necessitating urgent policy responses for diversification and resilience.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj17030134first seen 2026-06-29 09:11:03
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