RESCUE-OptimESM extended scenarios and climate emulator outputs
RESCUE-OptimESM拡張シナリオと気候エミュレーター出力 (AI 翻訳)
Katsumasa Tanaka
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、統合評価モデル（IAM）のシナリオを2300年まで拡張する「emIAM」エミュレーターを開発した。気候エミュレーターACC2と結合し、二酸化炭素除去（CDR）を含むコスト効率的なシナリオを生成。地球システムモデルの入力として、長期の気候応答やティッピングエレメントの評価を可能にする。
English
This study develops emIAM, an emulator of the REMIND-MAgPIE IAM, to extend emissions scenarios to 2300. By coupling with the ACC2 climate emulator, it generates cost-effective scenarios targeting various temperature levels with overshoot, incorporating carbon dioxide removal (CDR). These scenarios enable Earth System Models to assess long-term climate responses and tipping elements.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は2050年カーボンニュートラル目標を掲げ、CDRの活用を検討している。本手法は、長期の排出経路とCDRの役割を評価する枠組みを提供し、日本の気候政策の検討に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Globally, this work addresses the need for long-term mitigation scenarios beyond 2100, crucial for assessing CDR and overshoot pathways. It provides a reproducible method for generating scenarios that can be used in ESM simulations, supporting IPCC assessments and national climate strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel emulator for extending IAM scenarios to 2300, useful for long-term climate modeling and intercomparison studies.
🏛政策担当者:Offers insights into cost-effective mitigation pathways with CDR, relevant for setting long-term climate targets and carbon pricing policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are essential tools for exploring climate change mitigation strategies. However, they typically generate emissions scenarios only until 2100, limiting the assessment of longer-term Earth system responses to mitigation measures, particularly carbon dioxide removal (CDR). To address this limitation, we developed emIAM, an emulator of the REMIND-MAgPIE IAM. This emulator captures the IAM’s mitigation response to carbon price using marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for three major greenhouse gases (GHGs), two sectors, and five CDR methods. By coupling emIAM with the ACC2 climate emulator, we generated a suite of internally consistent, cost-effective scenarios extending to 2300, targeting a range of temperature levels with varying degrees of overshoot. Our approach offers an alternative to the conventional straight-line extended scenarios employed by ScenarioMIP; we extracted the IAM’s dynamic response characteristics through 2100 and applied them to project scenarios beyond 2100. Our scenarios serve as input to Earth System Models (ESMs) that investigate very long-term Earth system responses, including tipping elements, to mitigation strategies involving CDR deployment. Furthermore, our scenarios allow the four climate emulators (ACC2, FaIR, MAGICC, and OSCAR) to be compared across a range of systematically varied overshoots.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.ny15q-n8c11first seen 2026-07-02 05:06:04 · last seen 2026-07-02 05:06:07
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