Green recovery, Low-Carbon Economy and Sustainable Development in BRICS Economies
BRICS経済圏におけるグリーンリカバリー、低炭素経済と持続可能な開発 (AI 翻訳)
Xiaoning Sun, Sha Fu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はBRICS諸国（2000～2023年）を対象に、グリーンリカバリー（再生可能エネルギー投資）と低炭素経済（再生可能エネルギー消費）が持続可能な開発（調整純貯蓄）に与える影響を分析。結果、グリーンリカバリーの効果は弱く、COVID期には負の影響を示す一方、低炭素経済への移行は持続可能性に強く正の効果を持つことが明らかになった。また、グリーンリカバリーから低炭素チャネルを経由する間接効果は正だが統計的に有意ではなく、政策の一貫性向上が必要と示唆。
English
This study examines the effects of green recovery (renewable energy investment) and low-carbon economy (renewable energy consumption) on sustainable development (adjusted net savings) in BRICS economies from 2000 to 2023. Results show that green recovery has weak and regime-dependent effects—modestly positive pre-COVID but significantly negative during COVID. In contrast, the low-carbon transition is robustly positive, especially during COVID. The indirect effect via the low-carbon channel is positive but insignificant, indicating that green recovery has not yet effectively shifted energy mixes to generate sustainability gains.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
BRICS諸国を対象とした実証分析であるが、日本の気候変動政策（特にグリーンリカバリーと低炭素移行の関連性）の効果検証にも示唆を与える。日本では、グリーン成長戦略による投資と実際のエネルギー構成変化の連携を評価する際に、本分析の枠組みが参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global GX discourse by empirically testing the transmission mechanism from green fiscal stimulus to low-carbon energy outcomes and sustainable development. For international readers, it provides evidence from major emerging economies, highlighting that green investment alone does not guarantee sustainability gains without consistent energy-mix shifts—a key insight for ISSB/TCFD-aligned transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The paper offers a useful panel methodology for testing the direct and mediated effects of green recovery on sustainability, applicable to other country groups.
🏢実務担当者:Limited direct applicability; primarily macro-level insights for understanding the effectiveness of green investment in emerging markets.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for coherent policy design linking green recovery spending to low-carbon energy transition to achieve measurable sustainability outcomes.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Recovery packages are increasingly presented as a route to “build back better”, yet the extent to which green-labelled spending translates into measurable sustainability gains remains uncertain. This study examines how green recovery initiatives and low-carbon economic strategies shape sustainable development outcomes in BRICS, asking what effect green recovery has on sustainable development, how the transition to a low-carbon economy contributes to sustainability performance, and whether low-carbon development mediates the green recovery–sustainable development relationship. Using a quantitative panel design and harmonised secondary data for Brazil, China, India and South Africa over 2000–2023, sustainable development is proxied by adjusted net savings (% of GNI), green recovery by renewable energy investment, and the low-carbon economy by renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy). Panel-corrected standard errors are applied to full-sample and regime-specific estimates (pre-COVID: 2000–2019; COVID: 2020–2023), complemented by country-specific PCSE models, while mediation is assessed using fixed effects with 1,000 bootstrap replications. The results indicate that green recovery exhibits weak and regime-dependent links with sustainable development: it is modestly positive pre-COVID but becomes significantly negative during COVID and remains statistically insignificant in the full sample. In contrast, the low-carbon transition is positively and robustly associated with sustainable development, with a substantially stronger effect during COVID. The estimated indirect effect of green recovery via the low-carbon channel is positive but statistically insignificant, suggesting that green recovery has not yet produced consistent energy-mix shifts capable of transmitting sustainability gains. The study contributes by jointly estimating direct, low-carbon, and mediation pathways under crisis and non-crisis regimes, offering evidence to strengthen SDG 7, SDG 11 and SDG 13 alignment in major emerging economies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.35784/preko.9015first seen 2026-07-03 05:00:58
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