Financial Risk Valuation of Green Hydrogen Hub Investment Under Techno-Economic Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach in Indonesia
技術経済的不確実性下におけるグリーン水素ハブ投資の財務リスク評価: インドネシアにおけるリアル・オプション・アプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Priatmoko C, Hakam DF
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、インドネシア・スマトラ島におけるグリーン水素ハブの経済性を、DCF、感度分析、モンテカルロシミュレーション、リアル・オプション評価を統合した枠組みで評価。水力主体のシナリオAが最も魅力的で、LCOH 4.65 USD/kg、NPV 9.5865億ドル、ENPV 19.173億ドルを示した。リアル・オプション評価は静的なDCFよりも現実的な意思決定を可能にする。
English
This study evaluates the economic feasibility of a green hydrogen hub in Sumatra, Indonesia, using an integrated framework of DCF, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and real options valuation. Scenario A (hydropower-dominant) is most attractive with LCOH of USD 4.65/kg H2, NPV of USD 958.65 million, and ENPV of USD 1,917.30 million. Real options valuation provides a more realistic decision framework than static DCF under uncertainty.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は水素サプライチェーン構築を進めており、東南アジアからの調達も視野に入れている。本稿は、リアル・オプションを用いた投資評価手法を提供し、日本の海外水素プロジェクトへの応用が期待できる。
In the global GX context
As global hydrogen hubs emerge, this paper demonstrates a rigorous valuation methodology integrating real options to account for techno-economic uncertainty. It contributes to the discourse on transition finance and infrastructure investment decision-making under climate policy uncertainty.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The integrated DCF-MCS-ROV framework offers a methodological benchmark for valuing green hydrogen investments under uncertainty.
🏢実務担当者:The identification of key drivers (electricity cost, electrolyzer efficiency, financing) provides actionable levers for project structuring and risk mitigation.
🏛政策担当者:The study underscores the importance of stable electricity prices and financing conditions for enabling green hydrogen hubs in Southeast Asia.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Green hydrogen is increasingly viewed as a strategic energy carrier for industrial decarbonization, regional energy trade, and the transition to low-carbon energy systems. In Southeast Asia, Sumatra is well positioned to develop as a green hydrogen hub because of its abundant renewable energy resources and proximity to Singapore as a prospective import market. This study evaluates the economic feasibility and strategic investment value of a proposed green hydrogen hub in Sumatra under techno-economic uncertainty and identifies the most robust development scenario. An integrated valuation framework was applied, combining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Real Options Valuation (ROV) across three scenarios: an optimistic hydropower-dominant case, a base hybrid case, and a pessimistic solar-dominant case. The results show that project performance is primarily driven by electricity cost, electrolyzer efficiency, and financing conditions. Scenario A is the most attractive, delivering the lowest mean Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) at USD 4.65/kg H₂, the highest mean Net Present Value (NPV) at USD 958.65 million, and an Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV) of USD 1,917.30 million. Scenario B remains feasible but more sensitive to uncertainty, while Scenario C is economically unattractive. These findings indicate that ROV provides a more realistic decision framework than static DCF by capturing the value of managerial flexibility under uncertainty.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202606.2282.v1first seen 2026-07-10 04:40:47
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