Geopolitical and climate change risks affect FDI inflows: a bayesian panel data analysis
地政学的リスクと気候変動リスクがFDI流入に及ぼす影響：ベイジアンパネルデータ分析 (AI 翻訳)
Duy Khanh Le
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、2002年から2023年にかけて43経済を対象に、地政学的リスクと気候変動リスクが海外直接投資（FDI）流入に与える同時的かつ相互作用的な影響をベイズ推定により分析した。結果、気候変動リスクはFDIに有意な負の影響を与え、地政学的リスクは「安全な避難所」効果を示した。制度の質や貿易開放度がFDI促進要因である一方、関税は阻害要因となる。投資家保護と気候レジリエンス強化のための制度改革の重要性を提言している。
English
This study examines the simultaneous and interactive effects of geopolitical risk and climate change risk on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across 43 economies from 2002 to 2023 using Bayesian estimation. It finds that climate change risk negatively impacts FDI, while geopolitical risk exhibits a positive 'safe haven' effect. Institutional quality, labor force, and trade openness drive FDI, while tariffs deter it. The study suggests institutional reforms to enhance investor protection and climate resilience, offering a refined risk assessment framework for dual challenges.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本稿は、気候変動リスクと地政学リスクがFDIに与える影響を同時分析した点が新規性。日本企業の海外投資判断や、日本の気候変動対策が投資環境に与える影響を考える上で示唆に富む。特に、制度の質の重要性は、日本が投資先としての魅力を高めるための政策に活用できる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a dual-risk assessment framework that integrates geopolitical and climate risks, which is highly relevant for global investors and policymakers. It highlights the need for institutional reforms to build climate resilience alongside investor protection, contributing to the literature on climate finance and risk management. The Bayesian approach offers robust uncertainty quantification, advancing methodology in this area.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a nuanced quantification of climate risk impact on FDI using Bayesian methods, advancing risk assessment in international finance.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use the findings to evaluate climate risk in investment decisions and advocate for institutional improvements in host countries.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that enhancing institutional quality and climate resilience can attract FDI, informing economic and environmental policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the simultaneous and interactive effects of geopolitical risk and climate change risk on foreign direct investment inflows across 43 economies during the period 2002–2023. Methodologically, we employ the Bayesian estimation technique, providing a robust, nuanced quantification of uncertainty compared to traditional frequentist approaches. Results reveal a significant negative impact of climate change risks on inward FDI, while GPR exhibits a positive “safe haven” effect. Furthermore, institutional quality, labor force size, and trade openness are identified as primary drivers, whereas import tariffs act as a deterrent. Our findings suggest that because FDI involves long-term, sunk-cost investments, host countries must move beyond evaluating risks in isolation. We argue that institutional reforms not only safeguard investor rights but also enhance climate resilience for multinational corporations. This research offers a refined risk assessment framework for navigating dual geopolitical and environmental challenges.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2026.2691367first seen 2026-07-13 05:12:43
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