Fueling Tomorrow: Scenario Planning for the Future of Gas Stations
明日への燃料：ガソリンスタンドの未来のためのシナリオプランニング (AI 翻訳)
Joao Gabriel Rosa, Fabiano Armellini, Jean‐Marc Robert
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、電気自動車（EV）の普及に伴い、従来のガソリンスタンドがどのように適応すべきかを、カナダ・ケベック州を事例にシナリオプランニング手法を用いて検討する。フィールド観察、階層タスク分析、PESTEL分析、デルファイ法を組み合わせ、都市部、高速道路、郊外・地方の3つの文脈に対して12の将来シナリオを構築・評価した。結果として、都市部では商業・駐車場との統合、高速道路では高投資のマルチサービスハブ、地方では自家発電とプロシューマ参加という3つの適応パターンが示された。これらのシナリオは、液体燃料と電気インフラが長期共存する中での政策・産業の調整を支援する。
English
This paper develops a scenario planning approach for the adaptation of gas stations to transport electrification, using a Canadian case (Quebec). Combining field observation, task analysis, PESTEL scanning, and a Delphi method, it constructs 12 prospective service-use scenarios across urban, highway, and rural contexts. Three archetypes emerge: urban charging embedded in commercial ecosystems, highway multi-service hubs, and rural nodes with on-site generation. The scenarios provide logics for policy-industry coordination during the prolonged coexistence of liquid fuel and electric infrastructures.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもガソリンスタンドのEV充電インフラへの転換が進む中、本論文のシナリオプランニング手法は、地域特性に応じた適応戦略を検討する上で参考になる。特に、都市部・高速道路・郊外といった立地別のアプローチは、日本の市街地や過疎地域での展開に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper addresses the global challenge of repurposing incumbent fuel retail infrastructure for electric mobility. Its place-based scenario method offers a transferable framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the uncertain transition from liquid fuels to electrification, relevant for regions like Europe and North America with mature gas station networks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel, design-integrated scenario methodology combining field observation, PESTEL, and Delphi for infrastructure transition studies.
🏢実務担当者:Gas station operators and energy companies can use the scenario archetypes to inform investment and adaptation strategies for EV charging.
🏛政策担当者:Urban planners and energy regulators can leverage the place-based scenarios to coordinate permitting, grid capacity, and land-use policies for charging infrastructure.
📄 Abstract（原文）
ABSTRACT Transport electrification is reshaping the service infrastructures that mediate everyday mobility, yet most electrification scenario studies remain macrolevel and offer limited insight into how incumbent forecourt (gas‐station) networks can adapt under deep uncertainty. This study recenters gas stations as sociotechnical transition actors and develops a traceable, design‐integrated scenario approach to derive place‐based transition pathways. Using a Canadian case (with emphasis on Quebec), we combine field observation and hierarchical task analysis with a PESTEL horizon scan (patents, literature, and policy) and a two‐round Delphi with nine experts. A QFD‐inspired impact matrix and expert appraisal are used to construct and validate 12 prospective service‐use scenarios across urban, highway, and rural/outskirt contexts. Results indicate three recurring pathway archetypes: (1) urban charging embedded in commercial/parking ecosystems, (2) highway destination‐style multi‐service hubs requiring high‐CAPEX energy and service orchestration, and (3) rural/outskirt nodes where on‐site generation and prosumer participation plausibly complement conventional station roles. Across scenarios, feasibility is shaped by permitting and interconnection timelines, grid capacity constraints, land‐use and safety requirements, user acceptance, and utilization‐sensitive economics. The scenario set yields capability and staging logics that support policy‐industry coordination and roadmapping/portfolio decisions during prolonged coexistence of liquid‐fuel and electric infrastructures.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.70887first seen 2026-05-23 05:06:41 · last seen 2026-05-27 04:31:20
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