気候政策の不確実性と炭素排出強度：中国各省のエビデンス
Climate policy uncertainty and carbon emission intensity: Evidence from Chinese provinces (原題)
Chen Shen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国30省・2000〜2023年のパネルデータを用い、気候政策の不確実性が炭素排出強度に与える影響を二方向固定効果モデルで分析。政策不確実性が高いほど炭素強度が低下する傾向を確認し、人口密度が高い省では効果が弱く、エネルギー消費強度が高い省では強いことを示した。公衆の環境関心が媒介経路として機能し、企業・地方政府の先行的脱炭素行動を促す可能性を指摘する。
English
Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2000-2023), this study examines how climate policy uncertainty affects carbon emission intensity via two-way fixed effects, IV, and structural equation models. Higher policy uncertainty is associated with lower carbon intensity, with effects varying by population density and energy consumption intensity. Public environmental attention mediates the relationship, suggesting credible policy signals can spur anticipatory decarbonization.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国のカーボンピーク・カーボンニュートラル政策を背景とした地域脱炭素の実証研究。日本のSSBJ・有報開示や政策安定性と企業の先行的脱炭素投資の関係を考える上で、政策シグナルの設計に関する示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Contributes to global debate on how policy stability and credibility shape corporate decarbonization incentives, relevant to TCFD/ISSB transition planning and the design of predictable climate policy frameworks under CSRD and SEC climate disclosure.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:政策不確実性と排出削減の逆説的関係を媒介分析で示した点が、政策評価研究の新たな論点となる。
🏢実務担当者:政策シグナルの変化を先読みした脱炭素投資判断の重要性を示唆する。
🏛政策担当者:不確実性の完全除去よりも、信頼できる気候政策シグナルの継続的発信が先行的脱炭素を促す可能性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Against the backdrop of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, it is important to understand whether fluctuations in the policy environment affect regional decarbonization. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2023, this study examines how climate policy uncertainty affects carbon emission intensity. A two-way fixed-effects model is used to estimate the main relationship, while tail trimming used to assess robustness and an instrumental-variable approach employed to support causal identification. A structural equation model is used to explore the mediating mechanism, and interaction terms are introduced to examine heterogeneity. The results show that greater climate policy uncertainty is, on average, associated with lower carbon emission intensity, although the magnitude and direction of this association vary across provinces. Specifically, the effect is weaker in provinces with higher population density but stronger in provinces with higher energy consumption intensity. Public environmental attention is identified as an important channel through which climate policy uncertainty influences carbon emission intensity. These findings suggest that higher climate policy uncertainty is associated with lower carbon emission intensity in China by shaping expectations and encouraging firms and local governments to adjust carbon-intensive activities in advance. Accordingly, the policy implication is not necessarily to eliminate uncertainty altogether, but to recognize that credible climate-policy signals, even under uncertainty conditions, may promote anticipatory decarbonization responses.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130978first seen 2026-09-21 04:42:37
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。