バイオ燃料と炭素のストック・フローモデル
A stock-and-flow model of biofuels and carbon (原題)
John DeCicco
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
バイオ燃料の気候便益は、生産が利用時の生物起源炭素排出をどの程度相殺するかに依存する。本論文は作物収量増、農地拡大による土地利用変化、食料需要減、石油市場のリバウンド効果を含む簡潔なストック・フローモデルを提示する。トウモロコシエタノールの様式化シナリオに適用し、LCAが捉えてきた効果とトレードオフを透明に描き、炭素中立性を市場媒介型の純吸収メカニズムとして再定義する。
English
The climate benefit of biofuels hinges on how far production offsets biogenic carbon emitted at use. This paper presents a simple stock-and-flow model capturing key carbon exchanges plus economically induced effects: yield gains, cropland expansion with land-use change, reduced food demand, and petroleum market rebound. Applied to a stylized corn ethanol scenario, it transparently reproduces effects previously shown by LCA and reframes carbon neutrality as distinct market-mediated net-uptake mechanisms, complementing LCA for policy and education.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の再生可能燃料政策やバイオ燃料の炭素中立性を巡る議論に対し、LCA前提を問い直す概念的枠組みを提供する。SSBJや有報での排出量算定における生物起源炭素の扱いを考える際の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Speaks to global debates on whether biofuel feedstocks can be treated as carbon neutral under LCA-based renewable fuel policies (e.g. EU RED, US RFS), and to how biogenic carbon is treated in GHG accounting and disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:LCAの単純化仮定を市場媒介型の炭素フローとして再定式化する概念的枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:バイオ燃料調達やスコープ1排出算定で生物起源炭素をどう扱うかの前提整理に使える。
🏛政策担当者:再生可能燃料政策が依拠するLCAの炭素中立性仮定を再検討する材料になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract The climate benefit of biofuels depends on how well their production offsets the biogenic carbon emitted by their use. It is commonly assumed that carbon uptake during feedstock growth renders biofuels carbon neutral aside from ancillary fossil carbon and other production-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This assumption of a feedstock offset is retained in the lifecycle assessment (LCA) models adopted by policymakers for renewable fuels. However, consideration of land-use change (LUC) and other economically induced effects has revealed carbon flow changes more complex than those of a feedstock offset. This paper presents a relatively simple stock-and-flow model that offers a conceptual understanding of the carbon-related dynamics of biofuel use. The model focuses only on key carbon exchanges, omitting the ancillary emissions while capturing the economic impacts of increased crop yields, cropland expansion with LUC, decreased food demand and petroleum market rebound. Applied to a stylized scenario of corn ethanol use, the model transparently depicts effects and trade-offs previously characterized by LCA and other complex methods. It reframes biofuel carbon neutrality in terms of distinct market-mediated mechanisms of net uptake that can offset the biogenic carbon emitted from biofuel use while highlighting the dynamics of the atmospheric carbon response. As a complement to LCA, stock-and-flow analysis can be informative for policymakers and valuable for educational purposes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s44498-026-00184-zfirst seen 2026-11-12 05:06:41 · last seen 2026-11-13 05:16:22
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