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クロアチアとスロバキアにおける国家温室効果ガスインベントリ支援のための国規模森林炭素モデリング

Country-scale forest carbon modeling to support national greenhouse gas inventories in Croatia and Slovakia (原題)

Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Laura Dobor, Ján Merganič, Doroteja Bitunjac, Hrvoje Marjanović, Tomáš Hlásny, Mislav Anić, Dóra Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Ivan Barka, Petra Mendaš, Katarína Merganičová

Regional Environmental Change📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-14#炭素会計Origin: Global
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-026-02705-9
原典: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02705-9
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

クロアチアとスロバキアを対象に、生物地球化学モデルBiome-BGCMuSoを用いて森林炭素蓄積とその経年変化を国規模で推定した研究。バイオクリマ帯と土壌で層化し代表林分をシミュレーション後、面積で国全体へ拡大した。枯死木・リター・土壌の炭素蓄積変化係数を導出し、既報の国別CO2吸収量をクロアチアで1.6%、スロバキアで2.1%増加させた。LULUCF部門のGHGインベントリの方法論的完全性を高める再現可能なワークフローを提示する。

English

Using the Biome-BGCMuSo model, this study estimates forest carbon stocks and dynamics at country scale for Croatia and Slovakia via bioclimatic-soil stratification, representative stand simulation, and area-based upscaling. Model-derived carbon stock change factors for deadwood, litter, and soil raised previously reported national CO2 removals by 1.6% (Croatia) and 2.1% (Slovakia). It offers a reproducible workflow to improve the methodological completeness of LULUCF GHG inventories.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本でも森林吸収源は地球温暖化対策計画・NDCの重要要素であり、モデルベースの炭素蓄積変化係数導出は国別インベントリ精緻化やJ-クレジットの森林吸収算定の参考になる。SSBJ開示というより政策・統計インフラ寄りの示唆。

In the global GX context

Directly relevant to IPCC-guideline LULUCF inventory reporting and the transparency requirements under the Paris Agreement's enhanced transparency framework. Demonstrates how process-based models can fill carbon-pool gaps that inventory agencies currently leave implicit, a methodological gap relevant to all Annex I countries.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:モデルベースの炭素蓄積変化係数導出と国規模アップスケーリング手法の再現可能な実例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:森林関連事業者の炭素吸収量算定やサプライチェーン上流のLULUCF排出評価の方法論的参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:国別GHGインベントリのLULUCF部門で未推計の炭素プールをモデルで補完する政策的選択肢を示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Forest ecosystems are important carbon sinks and play a crucial role in reaching carbon neutrality. This study presents a reproducible workflow of using the biogeochemical ecosystem model Biome-BGCMuSo to support national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory by including CO 2 emissions and removals from carbon pools lacking explicit carbon stock change (CSC) estimates within the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. We estimated forest carbon stocks and their temporal dynamics in Croatia and Slovakia using the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 model. Our approach included (1) country stratification based on bioclimatic zones and soil characteristics; (2) simulations of representative stands of each stratum; and (3) upscaling results to the country scale using stratum area. The model was driven by the ERA5-Land meteorological dataset and site-specific soil characteristics, optimized eco-physiological parameters for dominant tree species, and country-specific business-as-usual management. Simulated live aboveground wood carbon stocks were validated against national growing stock data, while carbon stocks in deadwood, litter, and soil and annual Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) were evaluated against published ranges. After applying correction for relative stocking, the model showed moderate predictive performance of national growing stocks with normalized RMSE of 44% and normalized BIAS of 9% for Croatia, and normalized RMSE of 41% and normalized BIAS of 2% for Slovakia, while maintaining NEE, and carbon stocks in deadwood, litter and soil pools within the plausible literature ranges. Time series of simulated carbon stocks during the reporting period (1990–2023) were upscaled to the country level and used to estimate national CSC factors for deadwood, litter, and soil pools. Applying model-derived CSC factors increased previously reported national CO 2 removals by 1.6% in Croatia and 2.1% in Slovakia. This study strengthens the methodological completeness of national GHG inventories under the LULUCF sector.

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