東ティモールの経済移行：新たな石油・ガス開発、非石油部門の強化、大規模税制改革による資源の呪いの終焉
Timor-Leste's Economic Transition: Ending the Resource Curse Through New Oil and Gas Development, Strengthening the Non-Oil Sector, And Extensive Tax Reform (原題)
Carlos Afonso Barreto, Fonseca De Jesus Maia, Carlos S. Ribeiro
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
東ティモールは主要油田の生産停止と石油基金の枯渇リスクに直面し、資源呪いとオランダ病の回避が急務である。本稿は系統的文献レビューにより、VAT導入や物品税拡張、税務デジタル化を含む税制改革を国内財源の柱と位置づける。さらにGreater Sunrise等の新規炭化水素開発、既存インフラのCCS転換、農業・観光・鉱業への多角化を橋渡し戦略として評価する。
English
Timor-Leste faces fiscal crisis as Bayu-Undan ceases production and its Petroleum Fund risks depletion by 2034. This systematic review argues for extensive tax reform (VAT, excise expansion, digitalization) as sustainable domestic revenue, alongside bridge strategies: new hydrocarbon projects (Greater Sunrise, PSC 19-11, Chuditch), converting legacy infrastructure to CCS, and long-term diversification into agriculture, tourism, and mining.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業が関与するGreater Sunrise開発やCCS事業の文脈もあり、資源国における移行戦略と脱炭素インフラ転換の実例として、日本の資源外交・GX投資判断の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Offers a rare fossil-fuel-dependent economy case for global transition-finance and just-transition debates, showing how hydrocarbon assets and CCS conversion can be framed as transitional capital within a sovereign fiscal strategy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:資源呪い・オランダ病と脱炭素移行を接合する稀少なSLR事例として参照価値がある。
🏢実務担当者:資源国でのCCS転換や新規炭化水素事業に関わる企業のリスク評価に示唆を与える。
🏛政策担当者:資源依存財政からの脱却と税制改革・移行戦略の設計に政策的示唆を提供する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
With the official cessation of production at the Bayu-Undan oil and gas field on 31 July 2026, the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste now stands at a historic economic crossroads and faces its most critical fiscal challenge since the restoration of independence. For more than two decades, the country's public financial management system has relied almost entirely on the Petroleum Fund (PF), which various international institutions project could decline rapidly and be fully depleted by 2034 if the current expansionary pattern of public spending is not strategically adjusted or rationalized. This article employs a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to examine in depth the economic-transition strategies that the government must pursue to avoid the structural trap of the resource curse and the effects of Dutch Disease. Recognizing the fundamental fact that oil and natural gas are non-renewable resources, this study highlights the urgency of extensive tax reform - including the implementation of Value-Added Tax (VAT), expansion of excise taxation, and digitalization of tax administration - as a sustainable pillar of sovereign domestic revenue. It also critically evaluates medium-term bridge strategies involving the development of new hydrocarbon reserves (the Greater Sunrise megaproject, PSC 19-11 fields, and Chuditch), the conversion of legacy infrastructure into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facilities, and long-term diversification into real-economy sectors, including commercial agriculture, sustainable tourism, and non-oil mineral mining. The analysis indicates that successful transition depends on policy synchronization among the optimization of remaining hydrocarbon assets as transitional capital.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.38142/jogta.v5i1.2120first seen 2026-10-22 04:45:02 · last seen 2026-10-31 04:39:46
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。