重要鉱物市場における地政学リスクと米中緊張：グリーンエネルギー転換への示唆
Geopolitical risk and U.S.–China tensions in critical material markets: implications for the green energy transition (原題)
Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, Nishat Tasnim, Anupam Dutta
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EV電池向け重要鉱物（アルミ・コバルト・銅・ニッケル）の価格に対し、米中緊張と地政学リスクが与える動的影響をLP-IRF・SVAR・FEVDで分析した研究。反応は素材ごとに異なり、アルミとニッケルで統計的証拠が強く、米中緊張は両者に即時的・持続的な正の影響を与える一方、地政学リスクは長期的な下押し圧力となる。銅は短期・中程度、コバルトは反応が乏しく、COVID後・貿易戦争後に効果が増幅する。
English
This study uses LP-IRFs, SVAR, and FEVD on monthly data (2010–2024) to examine how U.S.–China tensions and geopolitical risk affect aluminum, cobalt, copper, and nickel prices. Responses are material-specific: aluminum and nickel show the strongest evidence, with UCT raising and GPR depressing prices persistently, while copper reacts moderately and cobalt barely. Effects intensify after COVID-19 and the trade war, with implications for supply-chain resilience and green energy policy.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はEV・電池素材の多くを輸入依存し、経済安全保障や資源調達リスクがGX戦略の制約となる。本稿は日本企業の調達リスク管理やサプライチェーン強靭化策を検討する材料を提供する。
In the global GX context
As ISSB/CSRD push firms to disclose climate-related supply-chain and transition risks, this paper quantifies how geopolitical shocks transmit to critical-material prices—evidence directly relevant to transition-risk assessment and physical/price risk modeling in disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:地政学ショックが重要鉱物価格へ伝播する素材別の異質性を、LP-IRF・SVAR・FEVDで示した実証枠組みとして参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:EV・電池関連の調達チームは、米中緊張や地政学リスクがアルミ・ニッケル価格を押し上げる点を踏まえ、調達契約やヘッジ戦略の見直しに活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:重要鉱物の供給網強靭化と資源外交・備蓄政策の設計において、素材別の価格感応度を考慮する根拠となる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
The worldwide green energy transition has escalated the demand for critical electric vehicle (EV) battery materials. However, these materials are heavily concentrated in specific regions, notably China; hence, trade conflicts, especially with China, and worldwide geopolitical shocks likely disrupt their supply chains and lead to price volatility. In this context, this study examines the dynamic effects of U.S.-China tensions (UCT) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on four critical materials for the energy transition—aluminum, cobalt, copper, and nickel. We employ a blend of sophisticated econometric techniques: Local Projection Impulse Response Functions (LP-IRFs), Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) for monthly data (July 2010-February 2024). Overall, our findings reveal heterogeneous, material-specific responses to geopolitical tensions, with stronger statistical evidence for aluminum and nickel than for copper and cobalt. UCT is associated with an immediate and persistent positive impact on nickel and aluminum. Conversely, GPR exerts broader, longer-lasting downward pressure, particularly on aluminum and nickel. Copper shows a moderate response for a short duration to both shocks, while cobalt exhibits a relatively muted response. These responses become more pronounced in the post-COVID-19 and post-trade-war periods. Finally, our findings carry significant policy ramifications for supply chain resilience and green energy initiatives.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100843first seen 2026-10-23 05:06:58 · last seen 2026-11-01 04:33:51
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