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枯渇石油・ガス貯留層におけるメカニズム分解型CO₂貯留容量：圧力制約付き二重計上回避フレームワークとナイジャーデルタ・ベンチマーク

Mechanism-Resolved CO₂ Storage Capacity in Depleted Oil and Gas Reservoirs: A Pressure-Constrained No-Double-Counting Framework with a Niger Delta Benchmark. (原題)

OGIRIKI, Shadrach, Udebhulu, Okhiria, ABDULKADIR, MUKHTAR

Zenodoデータセット2026-11-07#CCUS対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24044592
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/24044592

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

枯渇炭化水素貯留層のCO₂貯留容量を、構造・残留・溶解トラップを相互排他的に扱い二重計上を防ぐ枠組みで評価した研究。圧力制約と坑井供給能力を連成した低次元モデルを構築し、ナイジャーデルタの砂岩層で20年20Mt目標に対し19.521Mtの貯留量を算出。3,000回の不確実性分析でP10・P50・P90は10.61・19.11・20.00Mtとなった。

English

A mechanism-resolved framework estimates CO2 storage capacity in depleted reservoirs by treating structural, residual, and dissolved trapping as mutually exclusive, avoiding double counting. Coupling a reduced-order pressure model with well deliverability, a Niger Delta sandstone case yields 19.521 Mt against a 20 Mt/20-year target. A 3,000-realization uncertainty analysis gives P10/P50/P90 of 10.61/19.11/20.00 Mt, offering an auditable screening basis.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本はCCS事業化（先進的CCS事業）を進めており、貯留容量の監査可能な評価手法は国内の貯留適地評価やJCMを通じた海外CCS案件のデューデリジェンスに示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

As CCUS scales under net-zero pathways and emerging carbon markets, auditable, pressure-constrained capacity accounting matters for project finance and MRV credibility. The no-double-counting framework aligns with growing demands for transparent storage resource reporting.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:圧力制約とトラップ機構を分離した容量評価の定式化は、貯留資源量推定の方法論的ベンチマークとして有用。

🏢実務担当者:CCSプロジェクトの容量スクリーニングや投資判断における監査可能な評価枠組みとして参照できる。

🏛政策担当者:貯留容量の過大評価を防ぐ枠組みは、CCS政策・許認可や炭素市場のMRV設計に示唆を与える。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs are good targets for geological CO₂ storage, but estimates of the amount of capacity available can be over optimistic if structural, residual and dissolved trapping are assumed to be additive. In this study, a mechanism-resolved framework is created in which these inventories are mutually exclusive at each reporting time, and are constrained by a different pressure-limited mass to be injected. Specific expressions are derived for reservoir types that account for the connate water, residual hydrocarbons, structural accessibility, aqueous solubility and Land-type capillary trapping. A reduced-order pressure model is coupled with well deliverability and a bottom-hole-pressure ceiling and the post-injection transfer equations conserve the total retained mass by construction. A nominal injection target of 20 Mt over 20 years, for a representative Niger Delta (depleted sandstone) sample, gives the result of 19.521 Mt. since the pressure limit of 28 MPa is set to operate near the end of the injection cycle. At cessation, the structural/mobile amount is 11.62 Mt, the residual amount is 5.47 Mt, the dissolved amount is 2.34 Mt and the mineralized amount is 0.10 Mt. A 3,000-realization uncertainty analysis gives P10, P50, and P90 stored masses of 10.61, 19.11, and 20.00 Mt. The framework offers an audit-trail basis of screening that ensures trapping physics and pressure operability are distinct and double counting is avoided.

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