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再生可能エネルギーの出力抑制：ドライバー・予測手法・緩和戦略に関する構造化レビュー

Renewable Energy Curtailment: A Structured Review of Drivers, Prediction Methods, and Mitigation Strategies (原題)

Taheri, Nabi, Gaspar, João Miguel Pereira, da Silva, Manuel Pio Cruz, Tucci, Mauro

Zenodoプレプリント2026-10-15#再生可能エネルギーOrigin: EU経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1109/access.2026.3743740
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/23415531
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は259件の文献を再スクリーニングし、再エネ出力抑制を物理・運用・制度のドライバー、予測・意思決定支援手法、緩和経路の三層で整理した構造化レビューである。出力抑制は送電混雑・電圧制限・低慣性安定性・市場分断・需給の時間的ミスマッチが相互作用する多次元の調整問題だと結論づける。予測はヒューリスティックから機械学習・確率論的予測・DFL・分布ロバスト最適化へ移行しつつあり、緩和策は蓄電池・水素・系統増強技術・市場設計・需要側柔軟性の組合せが不可欠と示す。

English

A structured review of 259 re-screened records (181 core evidence) on renewable curtailment, organized around physical/operational/institutional drivers, forecasting and decision-support methods, and mitigation pathways. It frames curtailment as a multi-dimensional coordination problem arising from transmission congestion, voltage limits, low-inertia stability, market fragmentation, and temporal mismatch. Methods are shifting toward ML, probabilistic forecasting, Decision-Focused Learning, and distributionally robust optimization; mitigation requires integrated storage, hydrogen, grid-enhancing technologies, market redesign, and demand-side flexibility.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では九州・東北を中心に出力抑制が常態化し、GX推進法・第7次エネルギー基本計画下で系統増強と需給柔軟性の議論が進む。本レビューは蓄電池・水素・需要側柔軟性・市場設計の統合的枠組みを提示し、日本の系統運用・市場設計・企業の再エネ調達戦略の検討に資する。

In the global GX context

Curtailment is a growing constraint in high-renewable grids worldwide and directly affects the bankability of PPAs and transition-finance assumptions. The review's integrated framing of forecasting, market design, and flexibility connects to global debates on grid investment, ancillary-service markets, and storage economics under ISSB-era disclosure of transition risk.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:出力抑制研究の全体像とML・確率予測・DFLへの方法論的移行を把握できる。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達・PPA評価や系統制約リスクの把握、蓄電池・需要側柔軟性投資の判断材料になる。

🏛政策担当者:系統増強・市場設計・需給柔軟性を一体で進める政策パッケージの必要性を示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

As power systems move toward deep decarbonization, renewable energy curtailment has emerged as a critical challenge in high-penetration wind and solar systems. This paper presents a structured review of renewable energy curtailment based on a re-screened pool of 259 full-text records, of which 181 were classified as core evidence, 75 as supporting evidence, and 3 were excluded from the synthesis. The review is structured around three analytical layers: the physical, operational, and institutional drivers of curtailment; the forecasting and decision-support methodologies used to anticipate curtailment risk; and the technological, market-based, and cross-sectoral pathways available for mitigation. The reviewed literature shows that curtailment is not a single operational anomaly, but the outcome of interacting constraints across transmission congestion, distribution-level voltage limits, low-inertia stability requirements, market fragmentation, and temporal mismatch between renewable supply and system flexibility. It also identifies a methodological transition from heuristic and statistical screening toward machine learning, physics-informed models, probabilistic forecasting, Decision-Focused Learning (DFL), and distributionally robust optimization, with greater emphasis on operational relevance under uncertainty. On the mitigation side, the literature highlights a diversified portfolio of pathways, including battery and hybrid storage, hydrogen and power-to-X systems, grid-enhancing technologies, market redesign, ancillary-service participation by inverter-based renewables, and demand-side flexibility through electric vehicles, district heating, data centers, and transactive local markets. Overall, the review concludes that renewable curtailment is best understood as a multi-dimensional coordination problem and that reducing involuntary curtailment requires integrated progress across infrastructure, forecasting, market design, and demand-side flexibility rather than reliance on any single technological solution.

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