Navigating Ambition and Equity: Systemic Codependency in China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathways
野心と公平性のナビゲーション：中国のカーボンニュートラル経路におけるシステム的相互依存 (AI 翻訳)
Songmin Yu, Fu Zhao, Lingyu Yang, Xing Yao, Zezheng Li, Ning Wei, Hongbo Duan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、MESSAGEixフレームワークに基づく中国全土のエネルギーシステムモデルを用い、1.5、1.6、2.0℃の気温目標と6つの排出権配分原則の下で、風力・太陽光が無悔の選択肢であること、CCSが重工業脱炭素に不可欠であること、水素調達が排出制約に応じて変化することを明らかにした。特に、厳しい排出制約下では、電力部門が正味炭素吸収源となり重工業を支えるシステム的相互依存が生じ、技術選択に強い経路依存性をもたらす。
English
Using a national-scale energy system model with provincial resolution and high temporal granularity (48 time slices), this study explores China's carbon neutrality pathways under 1.5, 1.6, and 2.0 °C targets with six allocation principles. Key findings: wind and solar are no-regret options; CCS is essential for heavy industry; hydrogen sourcing shifts with carbon budget stringency. Under stringent constraints, the power sector must become a net carbon sink to enable heavy industry decarbonization, creating systemic codependencies and path dependencies. The 1.6 °C pathway under Grandfathering aligns pragmatically with China's 2060 pledge.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国のカーボンニュートラル研究は、日本でもSSBJや統合報告書における長期戦略の参考となる。本論文の省別分析と技術間の相互依存関係の解明は、日本が自国の地域別・部門別脱炭素ロードマップを策定する際の方法論的示唆を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a high-resolution, empirically grounded model of China's decarbonization pathways, offering crucial insights for global climate policy and investment. It demonstrates the critical role of power sector negative emissions and the systemic codependency between sectors, informing ISSB and transition finance frameworks on a major global emitter.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Energy system modelers and climate policy scholars can leverage the MESSAGEix China model and its provincial-resolution insights for further scenario analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams in energy-intensive sectors can identify no-regret investments (wind/solar) and critical technologies (CCS, hydrogen) for long-term planning.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers in China and other countries can use the framework to evaluate trade-offs between ambition and equity, and design robust national decarbonization roadmaps.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Translating global climate targets into national decarbonization roadmaps is profoundly uncertain. To navigate this uncertainty for China, we employ a national-scale energy system model developed in the MESSAGEix framework─calibrated to China's energy balances─that uniquely combines provincial-level resolution for key sectors with a high-granularity representation of intra-annual (48 time slices) power system dynamics. Across three temperature targets (1.5, 1.6, 2.0 °C) and six allocation principles, our analysis reveals that wind and solar consistently emerge as "no-regret" pillars, CCS is essential for heavy-industry abatement, and hydrogen's sourcing shifts with budget stringency. A critical systemic codependency exists across scenarios with stringent emissions constraints: the power sector must transform into a net carbon sink to enable the decarbonization of heavy industry, creating stark path dependencies across technology choices. The 1.6 °C pathway under the Grandfathering principle presents a pragmatic alignment with China's 2060 neutrality pledge and offers a detailed blueprint for this transition. Our provincial-level analysis distinguishes high-stakes decisions from robust "no-regret" investments, offering a framework to guide China's journey to carbon neutrality.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c15542first seen 2026-05-17 05:14:07
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