Trade Openness, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in India: Evidence from ARDL Models with Structural Breaks
インドにおける貿易開放度、経済成長、炭素排出：構造変化を考慮したARDLモデルからの証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Akhil Gawas, B. P. Sarath Chandran
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、環境クズネッツ曲線（EKC）仮説に基づき、インドの貿易開放度、経済成長、CO2排出の長短期的関係を1971〜2021年のデータで分析。ARDL境界検定とBai-Perron構造変化を適用し、EKC仮説を支持、所得転換点は約6,300ドルと現在の水準を上回る。貿易開放度は長期的に排出を増加させ、エネルギー消費が主要因。2070年ネットゼロには統合的な貿易・エネルギー・気候政策が必要と示唆。
English
This study examines the long- and short-run dynamics of trade openness, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in India within the EKC framework using ARDL and structural break analysis (1971-2021). The EKC hypothesis is supported with an income turning point of ~$6,300, above current levels, implying emissions will rise without intervention. Trade openness increases emissions in the long run, and energy consumption is the dominant driver. The findings highlight the need for an integrated trade-energy-climate policy framework for India's 2070 net-zero target.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
インドの実証研究だが、日本企業のサプライチェーンにおけるインド拠点の排出削減や、アジア新興国の気候政策動向を理解する上で参考になる。日本のGX政策（GXリーグ等）との直接的な関連は薄いが、新興国市場での脱炭素ビジネス機会の検討に有用。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global EKC literature by providing robust evidence from India, a major emerging economy. It underscores the limitations of income-driven environmental improvement and the need for integrated policy frameworks, relevant for global climate policy discussions and for multinational corporations assessing transition risks in emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on EKC and trade-emissions nexus in India, useful for comparative studies and policy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for companies with Indian operations on the long-term emissions trajectory and potential regulatory shifts.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for integrated trade-energy-climate policies to achieve net-zero targets, relevant for Indian and other emerging economy policymakers.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the long- and short-run dynamics of trade openness, economic growth and CO 2 emissions in India within the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. Drawing on annual data spanning from 1971 to 2021, the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach is employed alongside the Bai–Perron multiple structural break controls, estimated across three interconnected specifications, namely an economic growth model, an environmental quality model and a nonlinear EKC model. Stable long-run cointegrating relationships are confirmed across all specifications. The EKC hypothesis is supported by the coefficient estimates, with an estimated income turning point of approximately $6,300 per capita, which is well above India’s current income level, implying that CO 2 emissions will continue to rise with economic growth if there is no deliberate structural intervention. Trade openness increases emissions in the long run as scale effects dominate, indicating a scale-effect-driven trade pattern in India. Energy consumption emerges as the dominant long-run driver of emissions. Structural breaks identified in 1978, 1984, 2009 and 2014 capture India’s major developmental transitions and are found to exert persistent effects on both growth and emissions. The findings underscore that India’s 2070 net-zero commitment requires an integrated trade–energy–climate policy framework rather than reliance on income-driven environmental improvement alone.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1177/09763996261472966first seen 2026-08-12 04:49:04
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