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Income Thresholds and Distributional Effects in African Carbon Pricing: A Multi-Method Approach Toward Climate Resilient and Sustainable Society

アフリカの炭素価格における所得しきい値と分配効果:気候レジリエントで持続可能な社会に向けたマルチメソッドアプローチ (AI 翻訳)

Kyei Emmanuel Yeboah, Seidu Abdulai Jamatutu, Sidique Gawusu, Maxwell Wahabu Manpaya, Bo Feng

Journal of Economic Analysis📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-04#炭素価格Origin: Global
DOI: 10.58567/jea05040001
原典: https://doi.org/10.58567/jea05040001

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

アフリカ18カ国の2000~2020年のパネルデータを用いて、炭素価格が排出削減効果を持つのは一定の所得しきい値を超えた経済に限られることを発見。技術導入は逆に排出を増加させ、都市化と生物多様性保全は一貫して排出削減に寄与する。政策は国ごとの所得水準や制度能力に応じて差別化すべきと提言。

English

Using panel data from 18 African nations (2000–2020), this study finds that carbon pricing only reduces emissions above a GDP per capita threshold, technology adoption paradoxically increases emissions, while urbanization and biodiversity conservation consistently lower emissions. It calls for differentiated policy frameworks tailored to national income levels and institutional capacity rather than uniform regional approaches.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本企業のアフリカ進出やカーボンクレジット事業にとって、炭素価格の効果が所得水準に依存する点は重要。日本の途上国支援や国際協調における政策設計の参考となる。

In the global GX context

This paper challenges uniform carbon pricing approaches by showing income-dependent effectiveness in Africa, informing global discussions on differentiated climate policies, especially relevant for international carbon markets and development finance under the Paris Agreement.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides robust multi-method evidence on heterogeneous carbon pricing effects across income levels, advancing academic understanding of policy effectiveness in developing regions.

🏢実務担当者:Guides companies operating in Africa on how local income levels and institutional capacity affect carbon pricing outcomes, influencing investment and compliance strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Offers empirical support for designing income-differentiated carbon pricing frameworks and targeting complementary measures like urbanization and biodiversity conservation.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Environmental tax effectiveness in Africa is neither universal nor linear. It operates only above a critical income threshold, technology adoption paradoxically raises rather than reduces emissions, and policy responsiveness varies so dramatically across countries and emission levels that uniform regional frameworks prove inadequate. Drawing on panel data from 18 African nations over 2000–2020, this study deploys complementary multi-method estimation to capture structural breaks, cross-national heterogeneity, and distributional variation in emissions dynamics. The results establish that carbon pricing generates meaningful emission reductions exclusively among economies surpassing an identifiable GDP per capita threshold, where institutional prerequisites for effective tax enforcement are sufficiently developed. Technological adoption consistently increases emissions across the sample, driven by dependence on imported carbon-intensive industrial equipment, weak indigenous innovation systems, and inadequate complementary infrastructure rather than green technological progress. Urbanization, by contrast, emerges as a robust and broadly effective mitigation lever, with emission-reducing effects that deepen as urban systems mature. Biodiversity conservation demonstrates the most consistent suppressive effect on emissions across all estimation approaches and country contexts. These findings collectively call for differentiated policy frameworks calibrated to national income levels, institutional capacity, and emission profiles rather than continent-wide prescriptions.

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