家畜飼育禁止地域政策による畜産炭素排出の空間的移転と政策漏出
Spatial transfer and policy leakage of livestock carbon emissions driven by local livestock-free zone policies (原題)
Zhiyi Ye, Xunan Yang, Y Cao, Qihua Liang, Ai-Jun Ma, Mei‐Yan Xu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国広東省を事例に、家畜禁止地域政策が畜産炭素排出に与える影響を分析。政策は地域内で排出削減効果を持つ一方、隣接地域への排出移転（空間的スピルオーバー）を誘発し、全体の環境コストを3.14倍に拡大することを実証。特に北部広東省では技術効率を伴わない産業移転により環境リスクが増大する。
English
This study analyzes the spatial spillover effects of livestock-free zone policies on carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, China. Using panel data and spatial econometric models, it finds that while the policy reduces local emissions, it triggers significant leakage to neighboring regions, amplifying total environmental costs by 3.14 times. The paper highlights hierarchical emission transfers from core cities to less developed areas and warns against fragmented environmental regulation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、日本における畜産由来の温室効果ガス排出削減政策（例：家畜排せつ物管理）にも示唆を与える。地域ごとの規制が排出を域外に移す「漏出効果」は、日本の都道府県レベルでも起こり得るため、広域的な排出管理の必要性を強調している。
In the global GX context
This paper extends the pollution haven hypothesis to agriculture, demonstrating how local environmental regulations can cause unintended carbon leakage. For global GX contexts (e.g., EU, US), it underscores the importance of cross-regional coordination in climate policy, especially in fragmented regulatory environments. The methodology (spatial Durbin model, difference-in-differences) offers a template for evaluating policy spillovers in other sectors.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence of spatial spillover in livestock carbon emissions and extends the pollution haven hypothesis to land-intensive agriculture.
🏢実務担当者:Livestock operators and supply chain managers should be aware of potential relocation pressures and efficiency requirements under localized emission regulations.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights that fragmented local policies can exacerbate total emissions and that technology transfer and coordinated governance are essential to mitigate leakage.
📄 抄録（日本語訳）
全球气候治理框架与中国“双碳”目标下，减少畜牧业碳排放已成为当务之急。地方环境法规，如“禁养区”政策，旨在通过空间管理控制排放，但可能引发非预期的污染转移效应。本研究以广东省为案例，基于2014—2023年县级面板数据，结合空间杜宾模型、连续双重差分模型与网络分析，分析该政策对畜牧业碳排放的影响。结果表明，该政策虽实现了局部碳减排（直接效应：−0.047），却引发了显著的空间溢出效应（间接效应：+0.148），将环境成本放大3.14倍并转移至邻近地区。进一步分析揭示了从珠三角核心城市向粤北、粤西欠发达地区的层级性排放转移，且伴随异质性环境后果。粤西得益于高效畜牧养殖技术，呈现“高总排放量但低碳排放强度”的特征，而粤北则陷入承接产业产能却未获效率提升的陷阱，导致环境风险被放大。本研究将污染避难所假说拓展至土地密集型农业部门，揭示了微观层面执法差异如何驱动被动性产能再配置。研究凸显了碎片化政策带来的非预期外部性，并表明跨区域治理与技术驱动的产能转移相结合，可缓解泄漏风险并促进可持续发展。
AI 翻訳（deepseek-v4-flash）。 正確を期す場合は下の原文を参照してください。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Under the global climate governance framework and China's "Dual Carbon" goals, reducing carbon emissions from livestock farming has become an urgent priority. Local environmental regulations, such as "Livestock-Free Zone", aim to control emissions through spatial management but may cause unintended pollution transfer effects. Using Guangdong Province as a case study, this research analyzes the effects of the policy on livestock carbon emissions based on 2014–2023 county-level panel data, combining a spatial Durbin model, a continuous difference-in-differences model and network analysis. The results show that while the policy achieved local carbon reduction (direct effect: −0.047), it triggered significant spatial spillover effects (indirect effect: +0.148), amplifying the environmental cost by 3.14-fold and shifting it to neighboring regions. Further analysis reveals hierarchical emission transfers from Pearl River Delta core cities to less developed northern and western Guangdong regions, with heterogeneous environmental outcomes. Western Guangdong benefits from efficient livestock breeding technology, showing "high total emissions yet low carbon-emission intensity," while northern Guangdong falls into the trap of absorbing industrial capacity without efficiency gains and leading to magnified environmental risks. This study extends the Pollution Haven Hypothesis to land-intensive agricultural sectors, demonstrating how micro-level enforcement disparities drive passive capacity reallocation. It highlights the unintended externalities associated with fragmented policies and suggests that cross-regional governance, coupled with technology-driven capacity transfers, can mitigate leakage risks and promote sustainable development.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s44246-026-00283-3first seen 2026-07-24 05:58:07
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