気候変動と家電普及がピーク電力需要に与える世界的影響
The global consequences of climate change and appliance adoption for peak electricity demand (原題)
Maren Ludwig, Stephen Jarvis
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
家電所有と時間別電力需要のデータを用い、気温が電力需要に与える影響を世界規模で推定。気候・開発予測と組み合わせ、空調と電気暖房の普及により、今世紀半ばまでに全地域で平均電力需要が増加し、極端な暑さ・寒さ時のピーク需要は約2倍に増加すると予測。世界の年間送配電コストは2050年に年間0.3兆ドル以上増加し、低・中所得国に最大の負担が及ぶ。
English
Using appliance ownership and hourly electricity demand data across many countries, this study estimates temperature effects on electricity demand globally. Combining with climate and development projections, it shows that air conditioning and electric heating adoption will raise average per capita electricity demand in all regions by mid-century, with peak demand during extreme heat or cold rising nearly twice as much. Global annual grid costs increase by over $0.3 trillion in 2050, with the largest burden on low- and middle-income countries.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の電力システム計画や需給対策に示唆。気候変動による猛暑・寒波時のピーク需要増加は、電力安定供給や容量市場設計に影響。再エネ導入拡大と合わせた需要側対策の重要性を示す。
In the global GX context
Provides global empirical evidence on climate-driven electricity demand peaks, relevant for grid planning and climate adaptation. Highlights the disproportionate impact on developing countries, informing international climate finance and infrastructure investment discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides robust cross-country estimates of temperature-demand elasticities and future peak demand projections.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for utilities and grid operators to anticipate demand growth and plan capacity investments.
🏛政策担当者:Informs energy planning and climate adaptation policies, especially for developing countries.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Economic development, rising temperatures, and decarbonisation policy will have profound implications for electricity systems worldwide. Using data on appliance ownership and hourly electricity demand for a large, diverse set of countries, we provide new global evidence on how temperature affects electricity demand. Combining our estimates with climate and development projections, we show that the adoption and use of both air conditioning and electric heating will increase average per capita electricity demand in all regions by mid-century, with peak demand during periods of extreme heat or cold rising nearly twice as much. Global annual electricity grid costs increase by over $0.3 trillion per year in 2050, with the largest burden falling on low- and middle-income countries. Our findings underscore the growing importance of appliance adoption and climate change in electricity system planning.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.21953/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00140636first seen 2026-09-07 04:35:22
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