Study on Low Carbon Path in Beijing Based on LEAP Model under Dual Carbon Background
デュアルカーボン背景におけるLEAPモデルに基づく北京の低炭素経路に関する研究 (AI 翻訳)
Hanqing Hu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、LEAPモデルを用いて2020年から2060年までの北京のエネルギー需要と二酸化炭素排出量を予測した。ベースライン、低炭素、強化低炭素の3シナリオを設定し、強化低炭素シナリオが「ダブルカーボン」目標達成に最も適していることを示した。省エネには第三次産業と工業のエネルギー効率向上が、排出削減にはクリーンエネルギーとグリーン電力比率の増加が最も貢献した。
English
This paper uses the LEAP model to forecast Beijing's energy demand and carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under baseline, low-carbon, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios. Results show the enhanced low-carbon scenario best achieves the 'dual carbon' target, with energy efficiency improvements in tertiary industry and industry contributing most to energy saving, and clean energy and green electricity proportion increases contributing most to emission reduction.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
北京市を対象とした中国のダブルカーボン政策に連動した研究。日本では東京などの大都市の脱炭素計画策定に参考となる可能性があるが、中国特有の政策・エネルギー構造に基づくため直接適用は難しい。SSBJや日本の政策との直接の関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a city-level decarbonization pathway analysis using the LEAP model, relevant for global urban climate action. The enhanced low-carbon scenario's emphasis on energy efficiency and clean energy aligns with international best practices, though the specific policy context is China's dual carbon targets (2030 peak, 2060 neutrality).
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodology for urban energy-emission modeling using LEAP with scenario analysis, useful for comparative studies.
🏢実務担当者:City planners and sustainability teams can adopt the scenario approach for local decarbonization roadmap development.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the effectiveness of combining energy efficiency and clean energy measures to achieve emission peaks, relevant for urban climate policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
According to Beijing's energy demand and carbon emissions data, the LEAP model is used to forecast Beijing's energy demand and carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060. Build baseline scenarios, low-carbon scenarios, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios based on the magnitude of the measures. According to the prediction results, energy flow map and carbon flow map, the results show that the energy demand is not at its peak under the baseline scenario, reaching 120.5Mt in 2060, and carbon emissions reach 221.8Mt in 2052. Under the low-carbon scenario, energy demand first increases and then stabilizes, reaching 97.1Mt in 2060 and 184.3Mt in 2038, respectively. Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, energy demand peaked at 87.14Mt in 2057 and carbon emissions peaked at 170.3Mt in 2029. Of the three scenarios, enhanced low-carbon scenarios are most likely to achieve the "two-carbon" goal. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the two measures of improving the energy efficiency of the tertiary industry and industrial energy efficiency contributed the most to the energy saving, contributing 43.7% and 33.2% respectively. Using clean energy and increasing the green electricity proportion measures contributed the most to the emission reduction, the contribution rate reached 30.9% and 26.3% respectively.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.65102/is20261162first seen 2026-06-17 05:01:05 · last seen 2026-06-17 07:11:08
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。