中国におけるグリーンメタノール生産の持続可能な転換経路：カーボンニュートラル目標下での省別コスト進化

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:省別のグリーンメタノールコスト予測手法と、水素コストが支配的要因である実証結果を参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:中国でのグリーンメタノール調達・投資判断において、地域別コスト差とCO2源選択の影響を評価する材料となる。

🏛政策担当者:水素・CCUを軸とした産業脱炭素政策の地域別設計と、インフラ配置の優先順位付けに示唆を与える。

Achieving sustainable industrial transformation under carbon neutrality constraints requires breaking the high-carbon lock-in of the chemical sector through renewable-based production pathways. Green methanol, produced via CO2 hydrogenation using green hydrogen and captured industrial CO2, represents a critical technological option for decarbonizing methanol production while enabling circular utilization of industrial carbon emissions. Existing research on green methanol cost generally treats the CO2 feedstock cost as a uniform national constant, thereby obscuring the economic heterogeneity of different industrial CO2 sources and their spatial coupling with provincial renewable resource endowments, which limits the granularity of decision support for regionally differentiated green methanol deployment. This study constructs an integrated sustainability assessment framework for green methanol in China, systematically differentiating four typical post-combustion industrial CO2 source scenarios—steel, cement, coal-fired power and coal–chemical industries. By integrating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model, green hydrogen production cost accounting, and provincial-level CO2 capture cost trajectories, the framework forecasts the provincial green methanol production cost across 29 Chinese provinces from 2030 to 2060. The results show that (1) under the four industrial CO2 source scenarios, China’s provincial green methanol cost declines persistently between 2030 and 2060, with the coal–chemical source achieving the lowest cost (2032–3434 CNY/t) and the coal-fired power source the highest (2168–3565 CNY/t) in 2060. (2) The spatial pattern shows a stable “low costs in the Three-North region and high costs in southeastern and central China” differentiation, with Qinghai, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang positioned below 2500 CNY/t in 2060, reflecting the resource–environment coupling mechanism governing sustainable deployment of renewable-based chemical production. (3) Green hydrogen accounts for 76.4–80.9% of total cost while CO2 capture accounts for 4.1–10.1%, so that inter-provincial cost spread within any scenario is governed almost entirely by green hydrogen cost, whereas the choice of industrial CO2 source shifts the cost level of a given province. (4) Traditional industrial provinces such as Hebei and Jilin attain near-term cost competitiveness comparable to northwestern resource-rich provinces by combining locally available low-cost CO2 sources with a favorable renewable generation mix, though this advantage narrows towards 2060. These findings provide scientifically grounded pathways for China’s sustainable chemical industry transition, supporting the coordinated achievement of industrial decarbonization (SDG 9), climate action (SDG 13), and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), while offering actionable guidance for spatially differentiated sustainable development policies that maximize economic and environmental co-benefits.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18189276first seen 2026-09-11 05:01:35
• primary_source https://doi.org/10.3390/su18189276first seen 2026-09-14 00:28:24