Decarbonization Pathways and Mitigation Potential Assessment for the Steel Sector in Southeast Asia
東南アジア鉄鋼セクターの脱炭素経路と緩和ポテンシャル評価 (AI 翻訳)
Tae Yong Jung, Yoonha Lee, Hyunkyung Joo, Semin Park, Yoonmo koo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
東南アジア6カ国の鉄鋼セクターを対象に、19の製鋼技術を組み込んだボトムアップコスト最小化モデルを開発し、2020-2070年までの脱炭素経路を分析。炭素価格、技術協力、インフラ整備の3次元で9シナリオを設計し、政策の相互作用を評価。最も有利な政策組み合わせでは2050年までに排出量を67%削減可能で、炭素価格が最大の削減効果を持つ一方、インフラ整備はコスト削減に寄与。深い脱炭素化は浅い削減と同等のコストで達成可能であり、政策パッケージの重要性を示す。
English
This study develops a bottom-up cost minimization model with 19 steelmaking technologies for six Southeast Asian countries (2020-2070) and designs nine scenarios varying carbon pricing, technology cooperation, and infrastructure readiness. Under the most favorable policy combination, emissions fall by 67% by 2050, with carbon pricing contributing the largest reduction (27.1 pp) but raising costs, while infrastructure readiness adds 20.9 pp and lowers costs. Deep decarbonization is achievable at no higher per-tonne cost than shallow reduction when infrastructure and cooperation accompany carbon pricing, highlighting the importance of comprehensive policy packages.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の鉄鋼業界はグリーントランスフォーメーション（GX）政策の下で水素還元製鉄などの技術開発を進めており、本研究成果は東南アジアへの技術輸出や国際協力の可能性を示唆。また、炭素価格とインフラ投資の相互作用は、日本のGXリーグや排出量取引制度の設計にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides quantitative evidence on the interaction between carbon pricing, infrastructure, and technology cooperation in the steel sector, relevant to global climate policy discussions. It supports the case for investing in hydrogen and electricity infrastructure alongside carbon pricing, and highlights the role of regional cooperation in reducing transition costs. The findings are valuable for ISSB-aligned disclosure and transition finance frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of steel decarbonization in Southeast Asia, offering insights into policy interactions and cost-effective pathways.
🏢実務担当者:Informs corporate strategy on technology investment and infrastructure planning in the steel sector, especially for companies operating in Southeast Asia.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of coordinated policy packages, including infrastructure investment and regional cooperation, to achieve deep decarbonization cost-effectively.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Southeast Asia's steel sector faces the dual challenge of expanding production to meet rising demand while reducing carbon emissions. This study develops a bottom-up cost minimization model with 19 steelmaking technologies for six Southeast Asian countries over 2020-2070 and applies a three-dimensional scenario design that varies carbon pricing, technology cooperation, and infrastructure readiness at two levels each, yielding nine scenarios including a business-as-usual scenario (SC0). Rather than treating the three dimensions as strictly independent, we use the design to diagnose how they interact along a combined axis of policy ambition.

Without climate policy, BF-BOF expansion locks in rising emission intensity, reaching 1.14 tCO2/t by 2040, 18% above the 2020 level. Under the most favorable policy combination, emissions fall by 67% from SC0 by 2050. Carbon pricing contributes the largest emission reduction at 27.1 percentage points on average but raises costs. Infrastructure readiness adds 20.9 pp while simultaneously lowering costs. Technology cooperation adds 2.4 pp of emission reduction and delivers a 6 to 9% cost saving, and diversifies the technology mix during the transition. Deep decarbonization at 67% reduction is achieved at no higher per-tonne cost than shallow decarbonization at 17% reduction when infrastructure and cooperation accompany carbon pricing, indicating that the perceived trade-off between emission ambition and cost is largely an artifact of incomplete policy packages. These findings suggest that Southeast Asian governments should prioritize hydrogen and electricity infrastructure investment before or alongside carbon pricing, and that regional cooperation frameworks can be used to accelerate technology transfer and reduce transition costs.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9ab2first seen 2026-08-18 05:21:28
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