地政学的回廊混乱下における持続可能な海運燃料経路のレジリエンス：中東船隊運用のための定量的評価

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🔬研究者:地政学シナリオを燃料経路評価に統合するレジリエンス・スコア手法は、海運脱炭素研究の新たな分析枠組みとして参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:中東航路に依存する船隊の燃料投資判断において、バイオ燃料の低CAPEX・経路非依存性と効率改善の組み合わせを優先する根拠を提供する。

🏛政策担当者:IMO・EU規制下での燃料混合義務やインフラ集中リスクを踏まえ、 bunkeringハブの分散化や燃料柔軟性を促す政策設計の必要性を示唆する。

This paper evaluates the resilience of sustainable maritime fuel pathways, including biofuels, LNG, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen, under geopolitical corridor disruptions affecting Middle East fleet operations. Building on previously developed efficiency-first and fuel-evaluation frameworks, the study quantifies how Red Sea rerouting, Strait of Hormuz restriction, and bunkering-infrastructure concentration risk alter fuel-pathway feasibility, lifecycle compliance exposure under FuelEU Maritime and the IMO Net-Zero Framework, biofuel volume requirements, and transition economics across a simulated sixty-vessel fleet. A geopolitical scenario overlay is applied to an interaction-adjusted efficiency baseline and phased fuel-pathway model previously validated for bulk carrier, tanker, and gas carrier segments. Three scenarios are constructed: (A) sustained Red Sea rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, extending Middle East-EU corridor distances by approximately 3,500 nautical miles; (B) Strait of Hormuz partial restriction, disrupting Fujairah-dependent bunkering access; and (C) compound disruption combining both with war-risk premium escalation. Each scenario re-computes well-to-wake intensity exposure, biofuel blending volumes, corridor-fuel bunkering feasibility, CII trajectory degradation, and retrofit net present value. A composite resilience score is introduced to rank fuel pathways by route independence, infrastructure diversification, fuel flexibility, and capital robustness under disruption. Biofuels demonstrate the highest pathway resilience across all disruption scenarios due to their drop-in compatibility, minimal infrastructure requirements, and route-independent deployment. Under Red Sea rerouting, fleet fuel demand increases by 25 to 35 percent on affected corridors, expanding lifecycle compliance deficits under well-to-wake regimes. Efficiency-adjusted baselines absorb a significant share of this increase, reducing the biofuel blending volumes required to close intensity gaps. For a high-exposure containership and RoPax subset, post-efficiency biofuel requirements at B30 blending remain 26 percent lower than pre-efficiency baselines even under disrupted routing. Corridor-dependent LNG and methanol strategies exhibit high vulnerability under Strait of Hormuz restriction, as Fujairah, the region's primary bunkering hub, becomes inaccessible, collapsing supply reliability for fuels requiring specialized infrastructure. Ammonia and hydrogen readiness timelines extend further under disruption due to compounded infrastructure concentration risk. Onboard carbon capture retains value as a constraint-relief option where sustainable fuel access is geographically limited. War-risk premiums at 0.7 to 1.0 percent of hull value compress capital budgets, favoring low-CAPEX biofuel adoption over high-capital fuel-switching retrofits. The resilience-scoring methodology ranks biofuel-led strategies highest, followed by efficiency-plus-onboard-carbon-capture combinations, with single-corridor fuel commitments ranking lowest across compound disruption scenarios. Sustainable maritime fuel evaluations typically assume stable bunkering access and predictable trade corridors. This paper is among the first to quantify how geopolitical corridor disruption reshapes fuel-pathway ranking and biofuel volume economics under upcoming compliance regimes. The resilience-scoring methodology provides practicing engineers with an actionable tool to evaluate sustainable fuel investments against route uncertainty and infrastructure concentration risk that now define Middle East maritime operations.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.2118/235705-msfirst seen 2026-11-05 05:48:46 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:22:17