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Cereal yield’s effect on greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa: examining the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis

南アフリカにおける穀物収量が温室効果ガス排出に与える影響：環境クズネツ曲線仮説の検証 (AI 翻訳)

Human Sciences Research Council

Human Science Research Council SA📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-22#政策経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.14749/32359794
原典: https://doi.org/10.14749/32359794

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

南アフリカの穀物生産と温室効果ガス排出の関係を環境クズネツ曲線（EKC）仮説で分析。1961～2021年の時系列データを用い、収量が1ヘクタールあたり3.40トンを超えると排出が減少する逆U字関係を確認。持続可能な集約化と炭素クレジット制度への示唆を提供。

English

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for cereal farming in South Africa, finding an inverted U-shaped relationship with a turning point at 3.40 tonnes per hectare. Above this threshold, higher yields correlate with lower emissions, supporting sustainable intensification and yield-linked carbon credit schemes.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

南アフリカの事例だが、日本でも農業分野でのGHG削減と食料安全保障の両立は重要。持続可能な集約化とカーボンクレジットの設計に参考となる。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global EKC literature in agriculture, providing empirical evidence for sustainable intensification and carbon credit mechanisms that could inform NDCs and climate-smart agriculture policies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence for EKC in agriculture, useful for similar studies in other regions.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights a yield threshold for emission reductions, relevant for designing carbon credit programs.

🏛政策担当者:Offers a benchmark for integrating food security and climate targets in NDCs.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Cereal crop farming in South Africa is critical in supplying staple foods and for generating export revenue. However, intensified farming practices are tied to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, challenging national climate goals. This study employs the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to analyze time-series data (1961–2021) and identify the cereal yield threshold where emissions begin to decline. The main goal is to find a turning point that balances food security with climate mitigation actions. Employing both parametric and nonparametric techniques, the analysis finds an inverted U-shaped link between cereal yield and emissions, with a turning point at 3.40 tonnes per hectare. The results confirm a nonlinear relationship, with linear and quadratic yield terms statistically significant at the 1 % and 5 % levels, respectively. Above the turning point, higher cereal yields correlate with lower emissions, supporting the feasibility of sustainable intensification strategies. These findings reveal a crucial emissions- reduction benchmark, linking mitigation measures with policy and supporting yield-linked carbon credit schemes to promote sustainable agriculture and lower emissions. The study advances EKC research in agriculture and offers actionable insights for integrating food security with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This research contributes to discussions on sustainable development and climate-smart agriculture.

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