気候政策は雇用を奪うのか？西カナダにおける測定された雇用移行リスクと認知されたリスクのギャップ評価
Does climate policy kill jobs? Assessing the gap between the measured and perceived job transition risk in Western Canada (原題)
Ekaterina Rhodes, Kevin Andrew, Manuel Ebner, Megan Egler, Christopher Bell
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
化石燃料依存地域の住民1,666人への調査で、気候政策による雇用リスクの「認知」と「実測」のギャップを検証。両者は正相関するが住民はリスクを系統的に過大評価していた。認知リスクはアルバータ・サスカチュワンで高く、学歴や科学者への信頼でギャップは縮小、気候遅延言説への接触で最も拡大する。実測・認知リスクとギャップはいずれも産業向け気候政策への支持を低下させるが、消費者炭素税への支持とは有意に関連しなかった。
English
Surveying 1,666 residents in fossil-fuel-dependent Western Canadian communities, the study measures the gap between perceived and measured job-transition risk from climate policy. Perceived and measured risk correlate, but residents systematically overestimate risk. The gap narrows with education and trust in scientists, and widens most with engagement in climate-delay discourse. Both risk types and the gap reduce support for industry-focused climate policies, but not for the consumer carbon tax.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
炭素税を巡る「雇用喪失」言説が政策撤廃に繋がったカナダの事例は、日本での炭素賦課金・GX推進における世論・産業界の受容性を考える上で示唆に富む。政策コミュニケーション設計の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Directly informs the global debate on carbon pricing political durability and just transition, showing how misperceived job risk and climate-delay discourse erode support for industry climate policy—relevant to CBAM, carbon tax, and transition-finance legitimacy discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候政策の受容性とリスク認知ギャップの実証測定手法を学べる。
🏢実務担当者:炭素規制への従業員・地域社会の反応を理解し、移行コミュニケーション設計に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:炭素税・産業規制の設計時、誤認知と気候遅延言説への対処が支持獲得に重要と示唆。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Compulsory climate policies, including carbon taxes and regulations, have been framed in terms of threats to employment. The ’job-killing’ narrative has been particularly strong in Canada, where economic concerns have been tied to the consumer carbon tax, leading to its elimination in April 2025. Using a representative web-based survey of communities with fossil fuel-dependent employment in Western Canada (n=1,666), our study aims to: (1) introduce and validate an empirical measure of the perceptions gap between perceived and measured job risk from climate policy, (2) identify the socio-economic, political, and regional determinants of the perceptions gap, and (3) assess how measured risk, perceived risk, and the perception gap shape support for specific climate policies. We find that perceived and measured job risk are positively correlated, but respondents systematically overestimate risk. Perceived job risk is highest in Alberta and Saskatchewan and lowest in British Columbia and Manitoba, except northeastern British Columbia. Sectoral emissions intensity is the strongest predictor of perceived risk. The perception gap narrows with higher education and trust in scientists, but widens with income insecurity, right-leaning ideology, and especially engagement with climate delay discourses, which has the largest effect. Both measured and perceived risk, and the gap between them, reduce support for most climate policies, particularly industry-focused policies. In contrast, perceived risk and the gap are not significantly associated with support for the consumer carbon tax, suggesting industry policies are seen as more direct threats to employment. The study helps support climate-energy communication and decision-making.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115628first seen 2026-10-19 04:56:58
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