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ETS2の分配・環境影響と社会気候基金による緩和策の評価

Assessing distributional and environmental impacts of ETS2 and potential mitigation under the Social Climate Fund (原題)

Tom Krusche, Alina Winter, Alessia Fulvimari

Eceee ... summer study proceedings📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-28#炭素価格Origin: EU対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.66506/essp.198
原典: https://eceeeproceedings.org/articles/198/files/6a9187cc198bc.pdf
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

EUの建物・運輸部門を対象とする排出権取引（ETS2）が家計に与える分配影響を、EU加盟27か国のマイクロシミュレーションで評価。所得層・世帯特性・国による不均一性を明らかにし、社会気候基金（SCF）の対象となる緩和策（所得支援、改修、ヒートポンプ、EV購入補助、公共交通バウチャー）の効果と費用対効果を比較する。

English

This study assesses the distributional impacts of the EU ETS2 on households across 27 member states using microsimulation, revealing heterogeneity across income groups and countries. It simulates Social Climate Fund-eligible mitigation measures, comparing their effectiveness in alleviating burdens, GHG reduction potential, and cost-effectiveness.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではカーボンプライシング導入が議論される中、ETS2のような部門別価格付けの家計影響と緩和策の設計は示唆に富む。特に、エネルギー貧困層への配慮や基金の活用方法は、日本の排出量取引制度やGX経済移行債の設計に参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides rigorous evidence for the EU's ETS2 and Social Climate Fund, informing global carbon pricing design. It offers a methodological template for assessing distributional impacts and mitigation strategies, relevant to jurisdictions implementing carbon pricing in buildings and transport.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive microsimulation framework for assessing distributional and environmental impacts of carbon pricing policies.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how carbon pricing may affect household energy costs and the effectiveness of mitigation measures, useful for corporate strategy and stakeholder engagement.

🏛政策担当者:Delivers evidence on designing socially fair carbon pricing packages and allocating Social Climate Fund resources effectively.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Extended abstract 3-290-26 This submission provides an ex-ante assessment of the distributional impacts of the EU Emissions Trading System for buildings and road transport (ETS2) on households across the 27 EU Member States and assess the role of the Social Climate Fund (SCF) in mitigating these impacts. Carbon pricing in these sectors is central to achieving EU climate neutrality but raises concerns about regressive effects and affordability for vulnerable groups. This presentation addresses methodological challenges in identifying low-income households affected by energy and transport poverty. The work outlined in contains two main parts: First, using the Green EUROMOD microsimulation model based on EU Household Budget Survey (HBS) and EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data, it estimates household level impacts of ETS2 related price increases. Based on these results, the presentation identifies population groups most exposed to ETS2. It documents substantial heterogeneity across income groups, household characteristics, and countries, driven by differences in consumption patterns, heating technologies, and transport dependence. In the second part, the presentation simulates hypothetical mitigating measures eligible under the SCF, covering both buildings and transport. Measures include direct income support, renovation strategies, replacement of fossil heating systems with heat pumps, electric vehicle social leasing and purchase subsidies, and public transport vouchers. Their distributional impacts, effectiveness in alleviating ETS2 burdens, greenhouse gas reduction potential, and cost effectiveness are compared across Member States. By jointly assessing distributional and environmental outcomes, the paper contributes to the design of socially fair and efficient climate policy packages and provides decision-makers relevant evidence to support the strategic use of SCF resources alongside the implementation of ETS2. Read the full abstract. Download presentation.

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