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Quantifying real-world energy use and CO2 emissions of electric vehicles via a city-scale bottom-up framework

電気自動車の実世界エネルギー使用量とCO2排出量を都市規模のボトムアップフレームワークで定量化 (AI 翻訳)

Shuhan Ge, Yanqiao Deng, Minda Ma

arXiv (Cornell University)プレプリント2026-05-28#EV・輸送Origin: CN対象セクター: transport
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.29266
原典: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.29266

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

上海のデータを用いてEVの実世界エネルギー消費とCO2排出を分析した。BEV/PHEV/EREVの試験値と実使用のギャップを明らかにし、電力セクター排出が支配的であることを示した。系統脱炭素化や充電インフラ改善の必要性を強調している。

English

Using Shanghai as a case study, this study develops a bottom-up framework to quantify real-world energy intensity and CO2 emissions for all EV models from July 2022 to December 2024. It finds systematic underestimation by test cycles: BEVs use 20.8% more energy, while EREVs consume up to 3.75 times more. Power-sector emissions dominate operational CO2, and BEVs provide the largest mitigation. The findings underscore the need to align fleet electrification with grid decarbonization.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

上海を事例としながらも、日本の都市（東京・名古屋）や中国全体のEV政策にも示唆を与える。実走行と試験値の乖離は日本でも課題であり、系統脱炭素化とEV導入の連動は日本のGX政策と共通する。SSBJや有報でのEV導入効果算定に参考となる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides city-scale empirical evidence on real-world EV energy use and emissions, relevant to global discussions on transport electrification and grid decarbonization. It highlights the gap between test-cycle and real-world performance, which is important for policy design and disclosure accuracy globally.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a robust bottom-up framework for city-scale EV emissions accounting that can be adapted to other megacities.

🏢実務担当者:Offers data on actual EV energy consumption that can inform fleet planning and charging infrastructure investment.

🏛政策担当者:Underlines the need to couple EV incentives with grid decarbonization and to improve test-cycle realism for accurate mitigation accounting.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Although electric vehicles (EVs) are scaling rapidly, city-scale evidence on real-world operational energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from EVs remains limited. Using Shanghai as a case study, this study develops a bottom-up framework covering all EV models registered between July 2022 and December 2024 to quantify model-specific real-world energy intensity, the operational energy mix, and associated CO2 emissions. The results indicate that (1) pronounced and systematic underestimation by test-cycle values: on average, real-world use is 20.8% greater for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and ~55% greater for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), whereas extended-range EVs (EREVs) show the largest gaps, as many models consume 3.75 times more energy than their official data suggest. (2) From 2022-2024, electricity supplies more than 70% of operational energy, and power-sector emissions dominate EV operational CO2, contributing 75.3%, 85.7% and 87.0% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. (3) BEVs achieve the greatest absolute mitigation under current policies, with 1,834 kilotons (kt) of CO2 in 2035, modest benefits from PHEVs, and strong gains for EREVs under more ambitious policies (up to 2,122 kt of CO2 in 2035). These findings underscore the need to align fleet electrification with grid decarbonization, alleviate congestion, improve charging accessibility, and narrow test-cycle versus on-road performance gaps to fully realize the climate benefits of EVs in megacities.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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