Navigating critical metal challenges for stationary energy storage in China: contributions of recycling and technological substitution through 2050
中国の定置用エネルギー貯蔵における重要金属の課題：2050年までのリサイクルと技術代替の貢献 (AI 翻訳)
Daxing Xu, Tao Dai, Lipu Du, Yanfei Liu, Zhongkui Han, Dongsheng Liu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の定置用蓄電池（BESS）セクターにおけるリチウム、コバルト、ニッケル、バナジウムの需要を2050年までシナリオ分析。技術代替はリチウム等の需要を減らすがバナジウム圧力を増大。中程度のリサイクルで2050年の需要の55-63%を賄えるが、即効性は限定的。
English
This study projects critical metal demand for China's stationary battery storage through 2050 using a Gompertz model and dynamic MFA. Technology substitution reduces lithium/cobalt/nickel demand but shifts pressure to vanadium. Medium recycling can meet 55-63% of annual demand by 2050, though near-term mitigation is limited; second-life use offers earlier benefits.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では蓄電池の国内調達と資源循環が重要課題。本研究成果は、日本の蓄電池戦略や資源セキュリティ政策の策定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides quantitative insights into critical metal supply risks for energy storage, relevant to global supply chain diversification and circular economy strategies under the energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust modeling framework for assessing critical metal demand and recycling potential in energy storage.
🏢実務担当者:Informs battery manufacturers and recyclers about future metal demand and the value of second-life applications.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to align storage deployment plans with resource security and recycling policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are essential for renewable energy integration, but their rapid deployment may intensify critical metal supply risks. This study combines a Gompertz growth model with dynamic material flow analysis to project lithium, cobalt, nickel, and vanadium demand in China’s BESS sector from 2025 to 2050 under ten scenarios integrating energy-transition pathways, technology substitution, and application-specific preferences. By 2050, cumulative demand is projected to reach 223-535 kt for lithium, 46-203 kt for cobalt, and 386-1689 kt for nickel, while annual vanadium demand reaches 41-269 kt across scenarios. More ambitious decarbonization pathways substantially increase resource pressure. Technology substitution reduces reliance on lithium, cobalt, and nickel but shifts part of the pressure toward vanadium. Cobalt exhibits relative scarcity across all scenarios, whereas vanadium scarcity is highly sensitive to technology mix and transition pathway; lithium and nickel are not directly constrained by resource scarcity but face rapidly increasing demand pressure. Under the medium recycling scenario, recovered metals can meet 55-63% of annual demand by 2050, although recycling provides limited near-term mitigation because of the lag between deployment and retirement. Second-life utilization provides earlier mitigation, reducing cumulative primary demand by 21-107 kt for lithium, 19-89 kt for cobalt, and 154-727 kt for nickel during 2025-2050. These findings indicate that future resource risks in China’s BESS sector will be shaped not only by deployment scale, but also by technology choice and application structure, underscoring the need to align storage planning with resource security strategies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100375first seen 2026-08-14 05:07:52
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