グリーンファイナンス、イノベーション、金融安定性：南アフリカ移行経済における持続可能投資の役割評価
Green Finance, Innovation, and Financial Stability: Assessing the Role of Sustainable Investment in South Africa’s Transition Economy (原題)
Bongumusa Ngema, Linda Paul, Ravinder Rena
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
南アフリカを対象に、グリーンファイナンス・金融イノベーション・為替変動とマクロ金融安定性の動的関係をVECMで実証分析した研究。グリーンファイナンスのショックは4四半期以内に金融ストレスを約0.28標準偏差低下させ、銀行部門のZスコアを改善する。ただし為替減価が安定化効果の約2割を相殺し、金融イノベーションがその伝達を有意に強めることを示す。
English
Using quarterly data (2000Q1-2025Q4) and a VECM framework, this study examines how green finance, financial innovation, and exchange-rate volatility affect macro-financial stability in South Africa. A one-SD green finance shock cuts financial stress by ~0.28 SD within four quarters and improves bank Z-scores, though currency depreciation offsets nearly 20% of the stabilizing effect. Financial innovation significantly strengthens the transmission of sustainable capital to resilience.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では移行金融やGX経済移行債の議論が進むが、本稿はグリーンファイナンスがマクロ金融安定性に寄与する実証的根拠を提示し、日本のマクロプルーデンス政策やトランジション・ファイナンス設計を考える上で示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Amid global momentum on transition finance and climate-related macroprudential policy (TCFD/ISSB, NGFS scenarios), this paper offers rare emerging-market evidence that green finance can reduce systemic financial stress—relevant to how regulators integrate climate instruments into financial stability frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:グリーンファイナンスと金融安定性の因果的・動学的関係を新興国データで示す実証手法（VECM・IRF）の参照例となる。
🏢実務担当者:為替リスクがグリーン投資の安定化効果を相殺しうる点を踏まえ、新興国でのトランジション投融資のリスク管理に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:気候関連金融商品をマクロプルーデンス枠組みへ統合する際の流動性・為替スピルオーバー抑制の必要性を示唆する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study empirically examines the dynamic relationship between green finance, financial innovation, exchange rate volatility, and macro-financial stability in South Africa’s transition economy. Using quarterly time-series data spanning 2000Q1-2025Q4, we construct a multivariate framework incorporating green bond issuance and ESG-linked capital flows (green finance proxy), a composite financial stress index and banking sector Z-score (financial stability proxies), digital financial innovation indicators, the real effective exchange rate, GDP growth, and the policy repo rate. After confirming non-stationarity at levels using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests, Johansen cointegration tests reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, justifying estimation through a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Impulse Response Functions indicate that a one-standard-deviation shock to green finance reduces financial stress by approximately 0.28 standard deviations within four quarters (p < 0.05), while improving banking sector resilience as measured by the Z-score. However, exchange rate depreciation offsets nearly 20% of the stabilising effect, highlighting the role of currency risk in transition financing. Variance decomposition analysis shows that green finance innovations explain 17-22% of forecast error variance in financial stability over a 10-quarter horizon, confirming its growing systemic relevance. The moderating effect of financial innovation is statistically significant (p < 0.05), strengthening the transmission of sustainable capital toward macro-financial resilience. These findings suggest that green finance can enhance systemic stability in a carbon-intensive emerging market; however, its effectiveness depends on exchange-rate management and institutional quality. Policy implications therefore require cautious integration of climate-related financial instruments into macroprudential frameworks to mitigate unintended liquidity and currency spillovers during the Just Energy Transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20261205.11first seen 2026-11-14 04:56:12
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