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スウェーデンの建築ストックにおけるライフサイクル炭素排出と材料需要：アーキタイプに基づくストック動態評価

Whole-life carbon emissions and material demand in the Swedish building stock: an archetype-based stock dynamics assessment (原題)

Mata É, Karlsson I, Nilsson L, Wanemark J, Johansson S

Research Squareプレプリント2026-09-07#エネルギー転換Origin: EU対象セクター: construction
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9861073/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9861073/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、建築セクターのライフサイクルGHG排出と材料需要を評価する統合モデルを提示し、スウェーデンの建築ストックに適用した。アーキタイプベースのLCAと動的ストックモデルを組み合わせ、材料効率向上やバイオベース材料への代替、電化やBECCSによる脱炭素化などのシナリオを分析。2045年までにA段階の排出を90%削減可能だが、カーボンニュートラル達成には運用段階のさらなる対策が必要と示した。

English

This study presents an integrated modeling framework for assessing life-cycle GHG emissions and material demand in the building sector, applied to Sweden. Combining archetype-based LCA with dynamic stock modeling, it explores scenarios like material efficiency, bio-based substitution, and decarbonization via electrification and BECCS. Results show a potential 90% reduction in A-phase emissions by 2045, but full carbon neutrality requires further operational decarbonization.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の建築分野では、ライフサイクル全体での炭素排出削減が重要であり、SSBJ開示やゼロエネ建築の推進が進む中、本モデルはストック全体の排出評価と対策の優先順位付けに示唆を与える。特に、マテリアル効率やバイオマス利用のシナリオは、日本の建築ストック更新に応用可能。

In the global GX context

This study contributes to global building decarbonization scholarship by providing a replicable national-level framework that integrates material flows and life-cycle emissions. It aligns with international efforts like the EU's Level(s) framework and the global push for embodied carbon regulation, offering insights for policy design and sectoral roadmaps.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a replicable archetype-based stock dynamics model for assessing whole-life carbon and material demand, useful for national-level building stock studies.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights key leverage points for reducing embodied and operational emissions in building portfolios, informing material selection and renovation strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates scenario-based pathways to align building sector emissions with national climate targets, supporting the development of sectoral roadmaps and regulations.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p>The construction sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and material use, with embodied emissions from materials increasingly dominating total life-cycle impacts, particularly in countries where operational emissions are declining. This study presents a novel, integrated modelling framework for assessing material demand and life cycle GHG emissions from building construction at the national level, applied to Sweden through 2045. The model combines detailed archetype-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) with dynamic stock-driven projections and scenarios for reduced construction volumes, material efficiency, substitution with bio-based materials, and decarbonization of energy system and material production via electrification and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. It captures variations in material use across building typologies, frame types, and components, while allowing for scenario-based assessment of structural material flows and emissions reductions over time. Results for all life-phases show that concrete remains the most material- and emission-intensive component, particularly in multi-family and non-residential buildings. However, scenario comparisons (that focus on A-phase improvements) indicate that emissions can be reduced by 90% in year 2045, in line with the national sectoral roadmap, but do not yet lead to carbon neutrality. Further efforts in decarbonizing the operational side and energy system are required to achieve full neutrality. The analysis identifies key leverage points (how and when) for further emissions reduction across the sector and provides a replicable approach to national-level, scenario-based building sector decarbonization.</p>

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