Barriers to efficient carbon pricing: policy risk, myopic behaviour, and financial constraints
効率的な炭素価格付けへの障壁：政策リスク、近視眼的行動、および資金制約 (AI 翻訳)
Alexander Hoogsteyn, Jelle Meus, Kenneth Bruninx, Erik Delarue
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、排出権取引制度が低炭素産業技術への投資を促進する上での限界を、政策リスク、近視眼的行動、資金制約の観点から分析する。複数セクターの異質な予見期間を考慮した部分均衡モデルを開発し、鉄鋼セクターのケーススタディを通じて、これらの摩擦が炭素価格経路や投資決定を歪めることを示す。結果は、補完的政策の必要性と、異質な予見と不完全な市場行動を考慮したモデリングの重要性を強調する。
English
This paper investigates the limitations of cap-and-trade systems in driving low-carbon industrial investments due to policy risk, myopic behavior, and financial constraints. It develops a partial-equilibrium model with heterogeneous foresight across sectors, applied to a steel sector case study. The findings show that these frictions distort carbon price paths, delay investments, and lead to suboptimal technology choices. The results highlight the need for complementary policies and modeling that accounts for heterogeneous foresight.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX-ETSやカーボンプライシングの議論において、本論文が指摘する政策リスクや近視眼的行動が、国内の排出権取引制度設計や産業投資促進策に重要な示唆を与える。特に、鉄鋼セクターのような大規模排出産業における投資遅延を防ぐための補完的政策の必要性を強調している点が、日本のGX政策に直接関連する。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global carbon pricing scholarship by modeling how policy risk, myopia, and financial constraints interact across sectors to distort emission trading outcomes. Its insights are critical for designing effective ETS, especially when large industrial sectors are involved, and underscore the importance of combining carbon pricing with sector-specific policies and investment support mechanisms.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel modeling framework with heterogeneous foresight that can be extended to other sectors and regions, offering a basis for analyzing real-world carbon pricing inefficiencies.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the need for firms to account for policy risk and myopia in their green investment planning, and suggests that stable policy signals are crucial for decarbonization.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes that cap-and-trade alone may be insufficient; complementary policies (e.g., subsidies, risk guarantees) are necessary to address behavioral and financial barriers to low-carbon investments.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract We investigate the limitations of cap-and-trade systems in driving investments in low-carbon industrial technologies. Investments may be delayed, and technology choices may be suboptimal, due to myopic behaviour, financial constraints, and policy risk. We develop a partial-equilibrium model that explicitly captures these imperfections and, uniquely, represents multiple sectors with heterogeneous foresight horizons. This structure enables us to distinguish short-sightedness in emission trading from that linked to green investment hold-up. We illustrate these dynamics through a case study of green investment decisions in the steel sector. We quantify how these frictions and their interactions shape allowance banking, carbon price trajectories, and irreversible industrial investment decisions. We find that such imperfections can distort price paths, delay low-carbon investments, and lead to suboptimal technology choice. Conversely, imperfect investment behaviour may itself influence the carbon price trajectory when the affected sector is sufficiently large. The results highlight the need for complementary policy instruments and underscore the importance of modelling approaches that represent heterogeneous foresight and imperfect market behaviour.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ae6b8efirst seen 2026-05-14 23:08:44
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