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Modelling Thailand’s Energy Transition Pathways Towards Net Zero by 2050: A LEAP-Based Integrated Demand and Supply Analysis

タイの2050年ネットゼロに向けたエネルギー転換経路のモデリング：LEAPに基づく需要と供給の統合分析 (AI 翻訳)

Moaz Altaf, Nattapong Chayawatto, Sebastien Bonnet, Shabbir H. Gheewala

Energies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-31#エネルギー転換Origin: Global対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.3390/en19153602
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/en19153602

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

タイの2050年ネットゼロ目標達成に向け、LEAP-NEMO統合モデルで3シナリオを評価。NZ2050シナリオでは需要側排出をBAU比93%削減し、石炭全廃やCCUS/BECCS導入で技術的・経済的実現可能性を示した。電力コスト約47%削減も見込む。

English

This study uses an integrated LEAP-NEMO framework to assess Thailand's net-zero pathways. The NZ2050 scenario cuts demand-side emissions by 93% from BAU through electrification, renewables, coal phase-out, and CCUS/BECCS, while reducing power costs by 47%, demonstrating technical and economic feasibility.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX実践にとって、アジア新興国のネットゼロ移行の定量的評価手法は参考になる。特に、統合モデルによる費用対効果の高い脱炭素経路の提示は、日本のエネルギー計画や国際協力に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a robust decision-support framework for national energy planning, relevant to global climate policy and emerging economies. It demonstrates cost-effective net-zero pathways, offering insights for countries aligning with Paris Agreement goals and transition finance.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a replicable integrated modelling framework for energy transition analysis.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into cost-effective decarbonization strategies for energy-intensive sectors.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights policy gaps and the feasibility of net-zero targets, informing national climate strategies.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Thailand has committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, requiring a fundamental transformation of its energy system. This study developed an integrated energy modelling framework by coupling the Low-Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) with the Next Energy Modelling System for Optimisation (NEMO) to evaluate Thailand’s long-term energy transition under three scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), and Net Zero 2050 (NZ2050). The novelty of this study lies in integrating sectoral energy demand modelling; least-cost electricity system optimisation; GHG emissions accounting; and system cost assessment within a single framework to evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic implications of decarbonisation pathways. The results show that demand-side GHG emissions increase to 370.7 MtCO2eq by 2050 under BAU, while current policies reduce emissions to 137.6 MtCO2eq but remain insufficient to achieve Thailand’s climate targets. In contrast, the NZ2050 scenario lowers demand-side GHG emissions to 27.23 MtCO2eq (a 93% reduction relative to BAU) through extensive electrification; a 59% improvement in energy intensity; accelerated renewable energy deployment; coal phase-out by 2045; and the deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Residual transport emissions are reduced to 23 MtCO2eq and offset through carbon removal measures. On the supply side, least-cost optimisation reduces power-sector emissions to 2.9 MtCO2eq while lowering electricity generation costs by approximately 47% through an optimised renewable-based generation mix. The findings demonstrate that Thailand’s net-zero target is technically feasible and economically viable; the integrated LEAP–NEMO framework provides a robust decision-support tool for national energy planning and other emerging economies pursuing cost-effective net-zero transitions.

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