部門別政策と政策ミックスが低炭素イノベーションの「テイクオフ」に与える影響：2001〜2022年の18か国分析

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Methodological insights on combining ML with causal inference for policy evaluation.

🏢実務担当者:Guidance on which policy mixes are most effective for sector-specific low-carbon innovation.

🏛政策担当者:Evidence-based recommendations for designing synergistic policy portfolios.

Climate policy is a critical driver of low-carbon technology (LCT) innovation; however, prior studies pay insufficient attention to the combined effects of multiple policies. Addressing this deficiency, we combine machine learning with causal inference to endogenously detect sector-specific LCT ‘takeoffs’ in 18 major LCT nations from 2001–2022, systematically evaluating the impacts of over 1,600 policy interventions. Results show that some climate policy interventions act as key triggers for takeoffs in LCT innovation, with synergistic policy mixes forming the primary impact mechanism. In aggregate, market-based instruments (MBI), especially subsidies, serve as the foundational lever for innovation; non-market-based instruments (NMBI), notably performance standards, provide essential complementarity; and targets & governance (T&G) enhance long-run credibility and implementation capacity. At the sectoral level, the buildings sector exhibits the highest responsiveness to policy; its dispersion of agents yields a more diffuse and diverse composition of effective interventions. Electricity tends to favour complex ‘MBI + NMBI + T&G’ packages tailored to its capital-intensive, incumbent-dominated structure. Industry displays the mildest response, with cost sensitivity leading to a profile dominated by pricing and subsidies. In transport, the most effective interventions are dominated by ‘subsidy + targets’ combinations. This study suggests a general policy synergy pathway defined as ‘MBI as drivers + differentiated NMBI aligned with sectoral characteristics as complements + T&G as amplifiers’, which provides strong empirical evidence and practical guidance for designing LCT innovation policies. Nearly three-quarters of successful interventions combine multiple tools, and targets and governance should reinforce credibility rather than acting alone. Subsidies are the most consistent trigger of innovation and should anchor policy design, while performance standards are the most effective regulatory complement and merit wider coverage. Policy design should match each sector’s needs: diverse instruments for buildings, comprehensive packages for electricity, pricing and subsidies for industry, and subsidies with standards for transport. A generalizable synergy pathway, which is ‘market-based instruments as drivers, differentiated non-market-based instruments aligned with sectoral characteristics as complements, and target& governance as amplifiers’, provides a strategic blueprint for climate policy portfolio design.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.33455045.v1first seen 2026-09-09 04:58:57 · last seen 2026-09-09 04:59:13