Dynamic tail risk connectedness in different types of rare earth metals markets during major geopolitical events
主要な地政学イベント時における異なる種類のレアアース金属市場の動的テールリスク連関 (AI 翻訳)
Rehman S, Kazouz H, Subhan M
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国のレアアースバリューチェーンにおける重希土類金属（HREMs）、軽希土類金属（LREMs）、レアアース加工材料（REPMs）間の連結性を、分位数間連結性フレームワークを用いて分析。中国の輸出制限危機、クリーンエネルギー・EVブーム、ロシア・ウクライナ戦争などの地政学イベント下で、市場状態（弱気・通常・強気）による非対称かつ非線形なスピルオーバーを検証。結果、強気市場で市場統合が進み、LREMsが主要なショック送信者であることを示した。
English
This study analyzes connectedness among Heavy Rare Earth Metals (HREMs), Light Rare Earth Metals (LREMs), and Rare Earth Processing Materials (REPMs) in China's rare earth value chain using a Quantile-on-Quantile Connectedness framework. It examines asymmetric and nonlinear spillovers during geopolitical events such as China's export restrictions, the clean energy and EV boom, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Findings reveal higher integration under bullish conditions and LREMs as dominant shock transmitters, offering insights for portfolio risk management and supply chain security.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はレアアースの多くを中国に依存しており、供給途絶リスクはGX推進における重要課題。本研究成果は、日本の企業や政策担当者がレアアース市場のリスク連関を理解し、サプライチェーン強靭化や戦略的備蓄の判断に活用できる。
In the global GX context
Rare earth elements are critical for global clean energy transitions, and this study provides empirical evidence on market connectedness during geopolitical shocks. It informs global supply chain risk management and policy formulation for critical minerals, complementing ISSB/TCFD climate risk disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel quantile-based connectedness analysis of rare earth markets, useful for extending climate risk and commodity finance research.
🏢実務担当者:Helps corporate sustainability and procurement teams assess supply chain risks and diversify sourcing strategies for critical minerals.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for designing critical mineral supply chain resilience policies and strategic stockpiling.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for renewable energy, electric vehicles, advanced electronics, and defense industries, making them strategically important for global supply chains. This study examines the connectedness dynamics among Heavy Rare Earth Metals (HREMs), Light Rare Earth Metals (LREMs), and Rare Earth Processing Materials (REPMs) within China’s rare earth value chain. Using a Quantile on Quantile Connectedness framework, it analyzes asymmetric and nonlinear spillovers across bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions during the China export restriction crisis, the clean energy and electric vehicle boom, and the Russia–Ukraine war. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity in connectedness across market states and crisis periods. Total connectedness rises steadily toward upper quantiles, indicating near complete market integration under bullish conditions. LREMs consistently act as dominant shock transmitters, whereas REPMs remain net receivers. The findings provide valuable insights for portfolio risk management, critical mineral resilience, supply chain security, and strategic policy formulation. JEL Code: Q32, Q42, G15, F51, C58, D81</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10445687/v1first seen 2026-08-03 04:31:32
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