洋上の窓を閉ざすのか？不安定化する欧州におけるグリーンエネルギー転換の優先
Closing the offshore window? Prioritising the green energy transition in an insecure Europe (原題)
Sun Cole Seeberg Dyremose
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文はデンマークの洋上風力発電（OWP）と洋上エネルギー拠点（OEH）政策を、複数ストリーム枠組み（MSF）を用いて2020〜2026年の地政学的変動の中で分析する。ロシア・ウクライナ紛争後のインフレや市場不確実性、オープンドア制度の廃止がOWPのインセンティブを損ない、政策の「窓」が閉じかねないと指摘する。公開イベントやフォーカスグループ、文書分析を通じ、規制適応が地政学的リスクを緩和し窓を維持し得ると論じる。
English
This article applies the Multiple Streams Framework to analyse Denmark's offshore wind and energy hub policy amid shifting EU geopolitics from 2020 to 2026. It finds that post-Ukraine inflation, market uncertainty and the annulment of an open-door scheme have weakened OWP incentives, putting the policy window at risk of closing. Through thematic analysis of public events, focus groups and policy documents, it argues that regulatory adaptation can mitigate geopolitical uncertainty and keep the window open.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも洋上風力はGX推進の柱であり、入札制度や価格高騰・地政学リスクへの対応は日本の政策設計に直接示唆を与える。欧州の制度調整の失敗と適応は、日本のEEZ活用やサプライチェーン政策の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Offshore wind is central to EU decarbonisation and the REPowerEU agenda; this paper shows how geopolitical shocks can destabilise renewable build-out and how policy windows can close. It adds qualitative evidence on the political fragility of transition infrastructure relevant to global energy-security and disclosure debates.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:MSFを用いたエネルギー転換政策の窓分析の実例として、地政学と再生可能エネルギー政策の相互作用を学べる。
🏢実務担当者:欧州洋上風力市場の政策リスクと入札環境の変化を把握し、調達・投資判断に活かせる。
🏛政策担当者:入札制度設計や価格高騰・地政学リスク下での政策適応の必要性を示す事例として参考になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Offshore wind power (OWP) and offshore energy hubs (OEHs) have recently become stable components of decarbonisation efforts across the EU. To this end, a plan to construct "Energy Islands" was institutionalised in Danish policy in 2020, alongside ambitions to scale up OWP capacity by 6 GW. However, in 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict altered the geopolitical landscape, rapidly changing prospects for OWP implementation. Inflation, uncertain energy market developments and annulment of an open-door scheme have negatively impacted OWP incentives in Denmark. This article utilises the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to analyse symptoms, barriers, and proposed solutions to this development. It identifies how offshore energy policy 'windows' in Denmark are affected by shifting geopolitical landscapes across the EU from 2020 to 2026. To assess this, a thematic analysis of discourses surrounding OWP development is conducted, utilising themes appearing in the Problem, Policy and Politics streams of the MSF to frame the analysis. Data was gathered from six public events focusing on OWP development and from two focus group discussions. A document analysis of relevant policies and literature is conducted to support findings. Results indicate that the OWP window of opportunity has been at risk of closing due to significant shifts in deployment capabilities. Policy adaptations and new regulations can help mitigate geopolitical uncertainty and keep it open.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2026.107343first seen 2026-11-14 04:48:41
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