The sugarcane-ethanol chain and the carbon credits price formation: evidences of a success policy from Brazil’s RenovaBio program
サトウキビ-エタノールチェーンと炭素クレジット価格形成：ブラジルのRenovaBioプログラムの成功政策の証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Eder Benedito [UNESP] Simonato, Marco Tulio Ospina-Patino, Guilherme Henrique Oliveira
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ブラジルRenovaBioプログラムのサトウキビ-エタノールチェーンにおける脱炭素クレジット（CBIO）の価格形成を分析。農業供給、工業転換、市場の3段階を時系列モデルで検証し、CBIO価格は発行量だけでなく市場流動性や燃料市場条件に影響されることを示した。
English
This study analyzes CBIO price formation in Brazil's RenovaBio program across three stages (agricultural supply, industrial conversion, and credit market). Using time-series models, it finds that CBIO prices are driven by issuance liquidity, value intensity, and fuel-market conditions rather than just issuance volumes.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではバイオ燃料やカーボンクレジット市場の設計が進む中、ブラジルのRenovaBioの成功要因は参考になる。特に、クレジット価格形成における市場メカニズムの理解は、日本のGXリーグやJ-クレジットの改善に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how a national carbon credit program (RenovaBio) functions in the biofuel sector, offering lessons for global carbon pricing and disclosure frameworks like ISSB and transition finance.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Empirical evidence on the determinants of carbon credit prices in a biofuel chain, useful for modeling carbon market dynamics.
🏢実務担当者:Insights into factors affecting the value of decarbonization credits, relevant for companies participating in carbon markets.
🏛政策担当者:Case study on designing effective carbon credit mechanisms linked to fuel consumption, with implications for national decarbonization policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
RenovaBio links life-cycle performance in Brazil’s sugarcane–ethanol sector to tradable decarbonization credits - CBIOs. Yet, empirical evidence remains limited on how agricultural production dynamics in this chain and industrial conversion influence CBIO price formation. This study quantifies how key variables co-move across three linked stages: agricultural supply, industrial conversion and the CBIO market, using time-series models for each phase. In the agricultural stage (1976–2023), annual changes in produced quantity are driven primarily by productivity variation (β = 9.08 × 10 6 ; p < 0.0001; R 2 ≈ 0.30). In the industrial phase (1981–2023), hydrous-ethanol share dynamics move with milling throughput (β = 7.44 × 10 −10 ; p = 0.0034) and sugar allocation (β = 3.44; p = 0.022), and with GDP growth entering negatively (β = −0.348; p = 0.0358). In the CBIO phase (monthly, 2020/02–2024/08), it is indicated that increases in registered issuance and definitive traded quantity are associated with downward CBIO unit-price changes (β = −4.65 × 10 −8 and −2.63 × 10 −7 ; p ≤ 0.0001), whereas traded value and the fuel-market/chain activity are positively associated with price adjustments (β_VNDC = 2.92 × 10 −8 ; β_TPE = 6.47 × 10 −7 ; β_VGCM = 4.74 × 10 −4 ; p < 0.0001). The ethanol-to-gasoline consumption ratio has a negative sign (β = −2.62; p = 0.008), suggesting that ethanol-to-gasoline mix conditions help shape short-run CBIO price adjustments. Overall, CBIO price changes are better understood as outcomes of credit flows interacting with liquidity, value intensity and fuel-market conditions, rather than as one-to-one responses to issuance volumes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2026.1822477first seen 2026-06-17 05:44:22 · last seen 2026-06-17 07:14:03
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