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Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

陸上風力市場レポート 2021年版 (AI 翻訳)

Ryan Wiser, Mark Bolinger, Ben Hoen, Dev Millstein, Joseph Rand, Galen Barbose, Naïm Darghouth, Will Gorman, Seongeun Jeong, Andrew Mills, B. Paulos

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratoryジャーナル2021-08-30#エネルギー転換Origin: US経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.2172/1818277
原典: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1818277

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

米国エネルギー省による2020年の陸上風力市場の年次報告。風力発電は過去最高の導入量を記録し、電力供給の8%超を占める。タービン大型化・コスト低下により、平均設備コストは2010年比40%減の1,460ドル/kW、平均均等化コストは33ドル/MWhに低下した。同時に風力発電の健康・気候便益は経済価値で76ドル/MWhと評価される。

English

The U.S. DOE's 2021 land-based wind market report reviews 2020 trends: record 16.8 GW added, wind supplying >8% of U.S. electricity, and average installed costs down 40% since 2010 to $1,460/kW. Turbine size and capacity factors continue to rise, driving levelized costs to $33/MWh. Wind's health and climate benefits are estimated at $76/MWh, exceeding both grid value and cost.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では洋上風力の導入拡大が急務であり、米国のコスト低下要因(大型タービン、サプライチェーン、PPA価格動向)は日本の制度設計や事業者交渉に示唆を与える。特に、内陸部で20ドル/MWhというPPA価格は日本のFIT/入札制度.compareで有用なベンチマークとなる。

In the global GX context

This DOE report is a definitive data source on wind cost and performance, crucial for global energy transition benchmarks. It demonstrates that wind is now cost-competitive with gas and provides large societal benefits, informing ISSB-aligned transition planning and renewable procurement strategies worldwide.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides detailed empirical data on wind cost trends, capacity factors, and market value that can inform renewable energy models and grids.

🏢実務担当者:Useful for corporate renewable procurement teams to benchmark PPA prices and LCOE, supporting cost-effective green energy contracts.

🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence on wind's environmental benefits and declining costs, supporting policy design for renewable expansion and grid integration.

📄 Abstract(原文)

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

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