Firming weather dependent renewable generation yields single digit system level energy returns
気象依存型再生可能エネルギーの確実化は一桁台のシステムレベルエネルギー収益をもたらす (AI 翻訳)
Beck HP
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
太陽光・風力の変動性を補完する「確実化」に必要なエネルギー投資収益率（EROI）を評価。中央ヨーロッパの80%風力・20%太陽光構成で、バッテリーや水素、ガスバックアップを含むシステム全体のEROIは1.0〜7.7に低下し、二酸化炭素排出量も増加。信頼性の高い脱炭素化には、十分な純エネルギー余剰を持つ確実な低炭素電源が必要と結論。
English
This study evaluates the energy return on investment (EROI) of firming weather-dependent renewables in a Central European mix of 80% wind and 20% solar. Expanding the system boundary to include grids, storage, and backup reduces EROI from 10.7-16.0 (unfirmed) to as low as 1.0-2.2 for gas backup. Lifecycle carbon intensities rise from 38-75 to 80-327 gCO2eq/kWh. The authors conclude that reliable decarbonization requires firm low-carbon generation with sufficient net-energy surplus.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の再エネ導入拡大と系統安定化の議論に示唆。SSBJ開示や統合報告書で再エネ調達の実効性を評価する際、システム全体のエネルギー収支と排出原単位の考慮が重要となる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a critical energetic constraint for global decarbonization pathways, relevant to ISSB/CSRD disclosure on transition plans and energy systems modeling. It challenges assumptions about renewable-only grids and highlights the need for firm low-carbon generation, informing transition finance and policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a system-level EROI framework for evaluating renewable firming options, useful for energy systems modeling and lifecycle assessment.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of considering full-system energy costs and emissions when procuring renewables and planning backup, relevant for corporate decarbonization strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Informs energy policy on the need for firm low-carbon generation and the limitations of weather-dependent renewables for reliable supply.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Photovoltaics can exhibit favourable installation-level energy return on investment (EROI), yet electricity must also be delivered when solar and wind generation are insufficient. This study evaluates how the energy balance changes when the boundary is expanded to reliable electricity supply. A fleet-equivalent benchmark model includes component turnover, grids, storage, renewable overbuild, dispatchable backup, and fuel supply. It is not a simulation, optimization, or real-system prediction. Photovoltaics provide the accounting reference in an illustrative Central European mix of 80% wind and 20% photovoltaics, while the firming penalties arise more generally from weather-dependent generation. Expanding the boundary is decisive. The unfirmed renewable fleet retains an EROI of 10.7-16.0, but does not provide continuous electricity. Battery load-balancing references decline from 7.1-12.5 for 1h to 0.7-2.3 for 24h. Seasonal hydrogen yields 3.4-7.7; adding a 1h battery reduces the combined range to 2.9-6.8. Pipeline-gas and LNG backup yield only 1.2-2.6 and 1.0-2.2. The lifecycle-carbon advantage narrows accordingly. Under present industrial supply chains, GWP100 intensities rise from 38-75 gCO2eq/kWh without firming to 80-289 gCO2eq/kWh for hydrogen and battery-hydrogen firming, and 121-327 gCO2eq/kWh for gas backup. These favourable benchmarks set orientation, site, curtailment, and delivery factors to unity; real deployment lowers EROI and raises emissions. The results identify firming as a critical energetic constraint: reliable decarbonization requires firm low-carbon generation with sufficient net-energy surplus to sustain a resilient industrial society.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10392566/v1first seen 2026-08-04 04:33:25
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