気候緩和経路における全エネルギーシステムの動的エネルギー投資収益率（EROI）
Dynamic energy return on energy investment (EROI) of full energy systems in climate mitigation pathways (原題)
Tristan Martin, Iñigo Capellán‐Pérez, Juan Manuel Campos-Rodríguez, Carlos de Castro
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、エネルギーシステムモデルを用いて、化石燃料から再生可能エネルギーへの移行に伴うエネルギー・材料要件を動的に評価する新手法を提案。2060年までの再生可能エネルギー普及シナリオをシミュレーションし、再物質化による効率向上の相殺や、気候行動とシステム存続可能性のトレードオフを指摘。過渡期のシステム全体EROIが5:1未満となり、緑の成長パラダイムの実現可能性に疑問を投げかける。
English
This paper proposes a novel methodology for dynamically assessing energy and material requirements of transitioning to renewable energy systems using an energy system model. Simulating scenarios up to 2060, it finds that re-materialization may offset efficiency gains and that complex interactions create a trade-off between climate action and system viability. Transient system-wide EROI below 5:1 questions the feasibility of green growth, underscoring the need for dynamic net energy analysis.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、再生可能エネルギー導入拡大と経済成長の両立が課題。本論文の動的EROI分析は、日本のエネルギー転換計画の実現可能性評価に示唆を与え、SSBJや統合報告書における気候関連リスク・機会の開示にも関連する。
In the global GX context
Globally, this research contributes to the debate on the feasibility of green growth and the energy requirements of decarbonization. It provides a framework for assessing the dynamic EROI of energy transitions, relevant for climate mitigation strategies and transition finance decisions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a dynamic EROI framework for assessing energy transitions, useful for modeling and scenario analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights potential material and energy constraints in renewable transitions, informing resource planning and investment decisions.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that green growth assumptions may be optimistic, urging caution in setting mitigation targets and policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Net energy analysis (NEA) has traditionally focused on static, facility-level assessments or dynamic, empirical sectoral assessments of past developments. However, energy transitions are inherently dynamic, future-oriented processes that involve entire energy systems, including both generation and supporting infrastructure. Addressing this gap requires advancing simulation tools such as energy system models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs) into frameworks capable of fully dynamic NEA computation. The MEDEAS-World model introduces a novel methodology for dynamically assessing the energy and material requirements of transitioning the electricity sector from fossil fuels to renewable energy systems (RES). Simulating two scenarios with different levels of RES penetration by 2060 under a green growth paradigm, we identify two key findings: (1) the shift to RES may drive economic re-materialization, potentially offsetting efficiency gains, and (2) complex interactions arise between RES expansion, variability management, innovation, and mitigation, producing a climate action-system viability trade-off. The transient system-wide energy return on investment (EROI) values below 5:1 further call into question the feasibility of the green growth paradigm. These results underscore the need for dynamic NEA to inform robust climate mitigation strategies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003598206-14first seen 2026-08-20 04:32:47
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