Warming-driven shifts in global building energy use reshape climate mitigation planning
温暖化による世界の建物エネルギー使用の変化が気候緩和計画を再形成する (AI 翻訳)
Mengting Zhu, Mengqi Zhao, Rongqi Zhu, Jiyong Eom, Yuyu Zhou, Sha Yu, Fengqiao Mei, Yang Ou
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
建物は世界のエネルギー消費とCO2排出の主要セクターだが、気候シナリオは過去の気候ベースラインを固定していることが多い。本論文は、最新の気候予測を用いて、温暖化トレンドを考慮すると、冷房需要が最大79%過小評価され、暖房需要が最大40%過大評価されることを示した。これにより、CO2排出量は2100年に83～1600Mt減る一方、冷媒由来のFガス排出増加が見逃される。
English
Buildings are a major energy-consuming sector, but mitigation scenarios often assume fixed historical climate baselines. This study integrates updated Heating and Cooling Degree Days into a global IAM and finds that ignoring warming trends underestimates cooling demand by up to 79% and overestimates heating demand by up to 40% by 2100. These biases reshape emissions trajectories, reducing CO2 emissions by 83-1600 Mt/year but missing a rise in F-gases from cooling.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、温暖化トレンドを建物エネルギー需要に組み込まない従来のシナリオが、日本の気候緩和計画（GX基本方針や2050年カーボンニュートラル）においても需要予測の偏りを生む可能性を示唆。特に冷房需要の過小評価と暖房需要の過大評価は、エネルギー政策や設備投資に影響を与える。SSP-RCPフレームワークを用いる日本の研究者や政策立案者にとって重要な知見。
In the global GX context
This paper challenges the SSP-RCP convention of fixed climate baselines, revealing systematic biases in building energy projections that affect global mitigation pathways. It highlights the need to integrate climate feedback into IAMs for more accurate emissions accounting. The findings are critical for IPCC assessments and national climate plans, and also draw attention to overlooked F-gas emissions from cooling demand.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This paper provides a methodological advancement in integrating climate feedback into IAMs, showing biases in standard SSP-RCP scenarios for building energy use.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate energy managers and building designers should consider updated degree-day projections for future energy planning and equipment investment.
🏛政策担当者:National climate mitigation plans should account for warming-induced shifts in building energy demand and associated emissions, especially cooling-driven F-gases.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Global warming is reshaping energy demand in buildings, one of the largest sectors for energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Yet widely used mitigation scenarios, such as those in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) framework, often assume fixed historical climate baselines when projecting building energy use. This modeling convention, originally intended to isolate anthropogenic effects, now increasingly overlooks how rising temperatures systematically alter heating and cooling needs. Here we integrate updated Heating and Cooling Degree Days, derived from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections, into the Global Change Analysis Model to assess the consequences of incorporating future warming into global mitigation pathways. We find that ignoring warming trends introduces substantial biases: cooling demand is underestimated by up to 23% in scenarios with low warming and 79% in scenarios with high warming, while heating demand is overestimated by up to 14% and 40%, respectively, by 2100. Importantly, these misestimates reshape global energy and emissions trajectories, reducing CO2 emissions by 83–1600 Mt CO2 year−1 in 2100 when warming trends are included across different SSP-RCP scenarios, but also underestimating the rise in F-gas emissions related to cooling, especially in warmer developing regions. Zhu et al. find that global warming substantially affects building energy use, with rising cooling demand and declining heating demand driving cross-sector energy shifts and heterogeneous regional emissions impacts, reshaping climate mitigation planning.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74289-1first seen 2026-06-14 04:55:25
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