コード：米国電力システム移行の材料需要とサプライチェーン評価
Code: Material demand and supply-chain assessment of U.S. electricity system transitions (原題)
Griffiths, Paul, Moorhead, Avery, Brinkerink, Maarten, Mayfield, Erin
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
米国電力部門の脱炭素化に伴う材料需要を2027年から2050年までシナリオ別に定量化。需要は2020年代末から2030年代にピークを迎え、テルルやジスプロシウムなどで供給脆弱性が顕在化。政策・技術・経済前提の不確実性を考慮した統合フレームワークを提示。
English
This study quantifies material demand for U.S. electricity decarbonization from 2027-2050 across multiple scenarios, finding peak demand in the late 2020s-2030s. It identifies supply-chain vulnerabilities for tellurium, dysprosium, and other critical materials, offering an integrated framework for energy planning and policy.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、再生可能エネルギー拡大に伴う重要鉱物の安定調達が課題。本論文のサプライチェーン評価手法は、日本の資源戦略やサプライチェーン強靭化策に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a comprehensive framework for assessing material demand and supply-chain risks in energy transitions, relevant to global efforts on critical minerals and clean energy supply chains, complementing ISSB and CSRD disclosure requirements on resource resilience.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust methodology for integrating material demand projections with supply-chain vulnerability metrics, useful for energy system modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights critical material risks that could affect procurement and project timelines for renewable energy and storage projects.
🏛政策担当者:Informs policy on critical mineral supply chain security and strategic stockpiling for energy transition.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Decarbonizing the U.S. electricity sector will require rapid deployment of generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure, increasing demand for materials. We develop an integrated framework that quantifies annual and cumulative material demand from 2027 to 2050 across an ensemble of U.S. electricity futures spanning alternative policy, technology, and economic assumptions. Across the scenario ensemble, annual demand generally peaks during the late 2020s and 2030s before declining or moderating, with accelerated decarbonization increasing peak demand and more gradual decarbonization sustaining demand over longer periods. Demand uncertainty is driven primarily by U.S. electricity system scenarios for bulk commodities and base and alloying metals, and by material intensity assumptions for specialty metals and rare earth elements. We assess supply-chain vulnerabilities using metrics that characterize current supply-chain structure and compare projected material demand with current domestic and global production and reserves. Projected domestic material demand exceeds current domestic production and reserves for multiple materials, while remaining below current global supply for most. Tellurium, dysprosium, terbium, indium, and neodymium exhibit convergent but distinct supply-chain vulnerabilities, reflecting different combinations of elevated demand relative to global supply, high U.S. import reliance, and geographically concentrated primary production and processing. This framework, which integrates material demand projections with multidimensional supply-chain assessment, can be used to inform energy system planning, technological innovation, and public policy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/22126162first seen 2026-08-28 04:11:47 · last seen 2026-09-06 04:33:19
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