経済成長と炭素価格がナイジャーデルタの温室効果ガス排出に与える影響のシステムダイナミクスモデリング
System Dynamics Modeling of the Impact of Economic Growth and Carbon Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Niger Delta (原題)
Godspower C. Abanum, George Nduka
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日本語
本研究はナイジャーデルタを対象に、経済成長・炭素価格・GHG排出の相互作用をシステムダイナミクスでモデル化した。連立非線形微分方程式を構築し、正値性・有界性・平衡点の存在と安定性を証明、微分変換法（DTM）で半解析解を導出した。シナリオ分析により、適切な炭素価格設定が経済成長と排出増加のデカップリングを可能にし、大幅な経済縮小なしに持続可能性を達成できることを示す。
English
This study models the interplay of economic growth, carbon pricing, and GHG emissions in Nigeria's Niger Delta using system dynamics. It builds coupled nonlinear differential equations, proves positivity, boundedness, and stability, and derives semi-analytical solutions via the Differential Transform Method. Scenario analyses show that a reasonable carbon price can decouple economic growth from emissions growth, enabling long-term sustainability without major economic contraction.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業の直接的な実務対象ではないが、炭素価格が成長と排出をデカップリングしうるという定量的枠組みは、日本国内の炭素税・GXリーグ・カーボンプライシング議論の参考になる。新興国での政策設計事例として、日本企業のサプライチェーン排出管理や移行リスク評価にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
While focused on a developing-economy context, the paper offers a quantitative framework for how carbon pricing can decouple growth from emissions—relevant to global carbon-pricing debates and transition-finance discussions. It adds a system-dynamics perspective to policy design that complements TCFD/ISSB-style scenario analysis, though it does not engage disclosure standards directly.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:炭素価格と経済成長の動学を扱う数理モデリングの一例として、DTMによる半解析解法と安定性証明の手法が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:新興国サプライチェーンを持つ企業にとって、炭素価格導入が現地の経済・排出に与える影響を評価する際の概念的枠組みを提供する。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格設計が成長と排出のデカップリングを可能にする条件を検討する際の定量的参考になるが、実データ検証が限定的である点に留意が必要。
📄 Abstract（原文）
The Niger Delta in Nigeria is an area of high economic activity, especially in the oil and gas sector, which not only has been responsible for a considerable increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases but also has caused the degradation of the environment. It is thus a main challenge for the government to come up with policies that would make it possible for economic growth to continue while the environment is still protected. The current research presents a mathematical model that is based on system dynamics to analyze the interactions among the three forces of economic growth, carbon pricing policies, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Niger Delta region. The model combines the dynamics of macroeconomic growth, mechanisms of emissions production, and carbon pricing as a form of regulatory feedback control. A set of coupled nonlinear differential equations is created to describe the changes in output, emissions intensity, cumulative emissions, and carbon price dynamics over time. The fundamental qualitative characteristics of the model, like positivity, boundedness, equilibrium existence, and stability, are proven. A semi-analytical solution method that uses the Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to derive the dynamic solutions and policy implications that are approximated. The scenario analyses exhibit that putting in place a reasonable carbon price can lead to a situation where economic growth is no longer accompanied by emissions growth, thus making it possible for the environment to be sustainable in the long run without any major contraction in the economy. The findings give a numerical framework for the design of climate and environmental policies that are in line with the goal of sustainable development in the Niger Delta.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijamtp.20261203.13first seen 2026-10-08 04:49:20
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