移行経済におけるCO₂排出削減のマクロ経済的ドライバー：住宅部門への外挿から自治体政策スケーリングへ
Macroeconomic drivers of CO₂ emissions reduction in a transition economy: From residential extrapolation to municipal policy scaling (原題)
Тетяна Курбатова, Liliana Smiech, Iryna Mykolaivna Sotnyk, Олександра Кубатко, Mykola Sotnyk, Олександр Михайлович Теліженко
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ウクライナを対象に、投資活動・エネルギー効率・エネルギーコスト・再生可能エネルギーがCO₂排出に与える影響を2002〜2021年のマクロデータでOLS推計した研究。マクロのエネルギー効率が最も強い脱炭素ドライバーである一方、総資本形成の増加は排出を押し上げる（GDP比1%増で136kg増）ことを示す。石油価格と再エネ比率は負の符号だが統計的有意性はなく、方向性の傾向として解釈される。住宅部門への外挿と自治体建物ストックへの政策展開を構想する。
English
Using OLS on Ukrainian macro data (2002–2021), this study assesses how investment, energy efficiency, energy costs, and renewables drive CO₂ emissions. Macro energy efficiency emerges as the strongest decarbonization driver, while gross capital formation raises emissions (+136 kg per 1% of GDP). Oil prices and renewable share show expected negative but statistically insignificant signs, read as directional trends. Findings are extrapolated to the residential sector and municipal building stock for policy scaling.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本文脈への直接接続は弱いが、エネルギー効率投資が脱炭素の主要ドライバーとなる点は、省エネ法・GX推進法下の産業・業務部門対策や自治体の脱炭素先行地域の議論に示唆を与える。マクロ指標による間接推計の限界は、SSBJ・Scope3算定におけるデータ品質課題とも通底する。
In the global GX context
Adds a transition-economy empirical case to the global decarbonization literature, complementing TCFD/ISSB-aligned work that focuses on advanced economies. Its reliance on aggregated macro proxies highlights the data-quality and measurement gaps that disclosure frameworks (CSRD, ISSB) aim to close, and its municipal-scaling angle speaks to subnational climate policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:移行経済におけるマクロ指標と排出の関係を扱う際の、集計データ依存の推計限界とエネルギー効率の優位性を示す実証例。
🏢実務担当者:省エネ投資が排出削減に最も効くという示唆は、自社の設備投資・エネルギー調達の優先順位づけの参考になる。
🏛政策担当者:自治体建物ストックへの政策展開を構想する際、エネルギー効率と投資配分の設計に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThis study aims to assess a macroeconomic methodological approach for evaluating the impact of investment activity, energy efficiency, energy costs, and renewable energy development on CO₂ emissions in Ukraine, using the model’s insights for a conceptual extrapolation to the residential sector with subsequent policy scaling to the municipal building stock. The methodological basis is a top-down approach using econometric modeling (OLS) for 2002–2021, which represents the pre-war period in Ukraine. All estimations are based on aggregated macroeconomic proxy indicators and not on direct residential or municipal emissions measurement data due to a lack of reliable information. The results demonstrate that macroeconomic energy efficiency is the most powerful driver of decarbonization. An analysis of the residential sector indicates that higher household financial burdens associated with higher utility expenditures are statistically connected with lower CO₂ emissions, which may reflect demand-side adjustments in energy consumption, including price-driven savings. However, other factors, such as energy inefficiency or energy poverty, may also add to this relationship. In contrast, traditional investment activity still contributes to growing carbon footprints, with CO₂ emissions rising by 136 kg per 1% increase in gross capital formation as a share of GDP. At the same time, the estimated coefficients for global oil prices and the share of renewable energy exhibit the expected negative signs, suggesting economically meaningful long-term decarbonization tendencies. However, these relationships do not reach conventional statistical significance and should therefore be interpreted as directional trends rather than statistically confirmed effects.AcknowledgmentsThis paper is funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine within the projects “Comprehensive vertically integrated intelligent system for monitoring and regulating energy supply in municipal sector buildings” (No. 0126U000867) and “Drivers and barriers to human capital transformation for a circular and green economy” (No. 0126U001080).
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.21511/ee.17(3).2026.08first seen 2026-09-13 04:48:08
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